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The JD Rucker Show

‘Soft’ (Philly Fed & NAHB) and ‘Hard’ data (Retail Sales, Initial Claims) improved today but manufacturing production shit the bed…

Gold Hits New Record High; Dollar & Bond Yields Soar On 'Good'-Data, 'Trump-Trade'

Ignoring the manufacturing slump, this data reinforced the ‘no landing’ narrative and pushed rate-cut expectations notably (hawkishly) lower…Gold Hits New Record High; Dollar & Bond Yields Soar On 'Good'-Data, 'Trump-Trade'

Additionally, The Trump Trade has taken hold of the narrative for now…Gold Hits New Record High; Dollar & Bond Yields Soar On 'Good'-Data, 'Trump-Trade'

Goldman’s Chloe Garber told clients today that Polymarket is priced at 60/40, there is ~1.5% upside to 65/35 odds, and 4% downside to 50/50 odds.

“I think there is a possibility this pair could go to the July highs before the election, but it would require some terrible polls for Kamala Harris, whereas a lot of work has been done.

Clients are betting this direction because a 60/40 market going to 100 delta is still an enticing proposition whereas a coin flip is just hard.”

Importantly, she added that this local Trump trend hasn’t been driven by earnings revisions…revisions have been slightly negative since the end of July, so if 3Q earning season matters, these stocks could get affected. […]

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America First Report