Clay Travis' College Football Picks, Week 7: Under Cashes In

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We went 5-8 last week — with two diabolical late field goals that made no sense contributing to our losses, Michigan State and Mizzou should both be investigated for those late field goals — to run our season record to 36-46.

Yes, these are the gambling times that try a man’s soul.

I’ve got 13 winners for you this weekend. But before we get to those, I will be with the OutKick crew at Florida-Tennessee this weekend and on Friday night we will be at Yee Haw Brewery in Knoxville doing live shows and raising money for Hurricane Helene relief.

So if you are a Florida or Tennessee fan in town for the game, we hope to see you there on Friday night to help us raise money for those in need.

With that in mind, let’s dive in to the games this weekend.

Wisconsin at Rutgers, the under 40.5

Rutgers has dragged every game all season into the mud.

That continues on Saturday, especially against a Wisconsin offense that has often been nonexistent. (Purdue doesn’t count, Badger fans.)

Take the under and cash an early winner on Saturday.

Mizzou -27.5 at UMass

Last week Mizzou got embarrassed by Texas A&M and only put up one touchdown. (And an inexplicable late field goal).

Now they go on the road against a UMass team that gave up 31 points to Central Connecticut.

I’m betting Mizzou puts up 50 or more and this game isn’t remotely close.

And if I’m wrong, well, you can write off Mizzou as being a decent team for the rest of the year.

But I don’t think I’m wrong.

Mizzou wins big.

Clemson -20 at Wake Forest

The Tigers are on a vengeance tour through the ACC.

Everyone, including me, counted them out after the blowout loss to Georgia.

I was wrong.

Wake Forest pays the piper this week and Clemson wins by 28 or more to cover yet another game in conference.

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 5: Alabama Crimson Tide Head Coach Kalen DeBoer looks from the sidelines against the Vanderbilt Commodores in the second half at FirstBank Stadium on October 5, 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Carly Mackler/Getty Images)

South Carolina at Alabama, the under 51.5

A big part of college football gambling is the psychology of teams.

Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama team has given up 67 points in the past six quarters.

I’m betting the defense shows up to play in a major way against a Gamecocks team that isn’t great offensively. The result? A low-scoring game that Alabama wins comfortably, something like 31-6 feels right.

That’s too close to the line to mess with, but well under the total, so take the under in this one.

Texas at Oklahoma +14.5

Look, maybe Oklahoma is truly awful and Texas is truly incredible. Because that’s what this line is telling us. But in nine of the last 10 Red River Shootouts, the margin has been 12 or less. And Oklahoma has won five of those six games. (The one exception, to be fair, was Texas winning 49-0 two years ago.)

So you’re telling me that Texas is now over two touchdowns better than Oklahoma?

I just don’t see it.

This is a rivalry for a reason. Texas may very well win, but I think it will be by 10 or less.

Give me the Sooners to cover two touchdowns.

Ohio State at Oregon, the under 53.5

I know many people are expecting a shootout in a top five matchup here, but both defenses have impressed me of late, especially Ohio State’s.

I think the Buckeye defense travels well halfway across the country and the final score in this one has both teams in the lower 20s.

Meanwhile Oregon’s defense has stepped it up after the first two weeks.

If I’m right about both defenses showing up, and I think I am, that’s an easy under.

Penn State at USC, the under 50.5

Speaking of unders, I’m not convinced Penn State is very good offensively, but I have bought into their defense.

Meanwhile USC is desperate for a win, but also doesn’t have a great offense.

The result? A low scoring slugfest in Los Angeles.

Don’t fight it, hop on the under train and ride it to a cover.

COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 05: Head coach Lane Kiffin of the Mississippi Rebels looks on in the first quarter during their game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium on October 05, 2024 in Columbia, South Carolina. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

Ole Miss -3.5 at LSU, and the under 63.5

This is a Lane Kiffin bet.

On its face, Ole Miss being favored on the road at LSU is tough, the Rebels haven’t won here since 2008.

But what has LSU done to impress you so far this year? Not much. And, honestly, I just don’t think LSU is very good on either side of the ball.

Meanwhile I think Ole Miss got a ton fixed on the road at South Carolina with their impressive win there.

Which is why I think the Ole Miss defense wins the game and slows down this LSU offense, giving the Rebels a ton to scream Hotty Toddy about on a Saturday night on the bayou.

Ole Miss’s defense (!) dominates, and gets them the win.

Florida +15.5 at Tennessee

Tennessee has not beaten Florida by over 15 points since 1992.

I remember that game well, it happened in an absolute deluge, and I was 13 years old and there with my dad.

I’m now 45 years old and a Gator beatdown like this hasn’t happened for the Vols since then.

Could Tennessee blow out Florida on Saturday night in Neyland Stadium?

Sure.

Am I willing to bet on it?

Nope.

Not even with Billy Napier on the sideline for the Gators.

The Vols win, but it will likely be by single digits. Especially with the way this Vol offense has played in its first two SEC games.

The Gators cover.

NASHVILLE, TN – OCTOBER 05: Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia (2) looks back at the defense during a game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and Alabama Crimson Tide, October 5, 2024 at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Vanderbilt +14 at Kentucky and the over 46.5

Last week I was 100% wrong about Vanderbilt competing with Alabama, this week the Commodores remain a two-touchdown underdog against Kentucky, a team that hasn’t shown much offensive punch so far this year.

That number feels way too high for that reason.

But also, every Vanderbilt game has gone over 46.5 so far this year, often by quite a bit.

I like this one to stay close, but go over, giving us a double win in the bluegrass.

Minnesota at UCLA, the under 40.5

UCLA can’t score on offense and Minnesota can’t most of the time either

The Golden Gophers beat USC last week, can they own the city of Los Angeles for two straight weeks?

Certainly.

But if they do, it will be a low-scoring affair, the under’s the play.

…

There you have it, boys and girls, a 13-0 week is coming.

And I hope to see many of you at our fundraiser on Friday night at Yee Haw Brewery in downtown Knoxville.