Is Florida’s ‘Great Migration’ Coming Undone?

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For several years, one of Ron DeSantis’ great claims to fame was the impressive (some might say explosive) growth in population, along with tourism and jobs seen in his state under his administration. Florida became a “go-to state” for people seeking to escape oppressive, liberal governments, high taxes, and a general lack of personal freedom. But all good things must come to an end eventually, and the population growth began to stall a couple of years ago. Eventually, some of the new arrivals ran into situations where it made more sense to move back to their states of origin. There was a problem, however. The housing boom had begun to shift toward a housing bust and people expecting to draw a fat profit from selling their Florida property ran into a brick wall. The Wall Street Journal features the story of one such homeowner named Anthony Holmes, who put his Florida home on the market and attracted literally no potential buyers despite slashing his asking price to the bone. 

Anthony Holmes was part of the great Florida migration. In 2021, he moved from Virginia to a gated suburban community in Tampa. 

Now that he has had to leave, Holmes is another victim of a glutted housing market where buyers are increasingly hard to find. 

He paid $550,000 for his five-bedroom home and spent another $50,000 on solar panels and interior improvements. When he had to move back to Virginia for work, Holmes expected to sell his house quickly. But since listing it in February, he has had no luck. He dropped the price five times to $583,900 and would be happy simply to break even. 

“I can’t unload the thing,” Holmes said. “In eight months, I’ve had zero offers. No one even showed up to the open houses. Nobody.”

A variety of factors are contributing to the rather rapid decline of what was considered only a few years ago to be one of the most rapidly expanding real estate markets in modern history. Part of it is beyond the government’s control, with an increasing frequency of hurricanes and flooding contributing to people attempting to relocate. But there is more to the story than just that.

Florida is still experiencing growth and an expansion of wealth, but the growth has slowed considerably. The job market remains strong, with those who remain settled in there often doing quite well for themselves. Anthony Holmes was faced with a need to return to Virginia for professional reasons, but he can’t manage it without finding a buyer for his house. His home is still worth far more than he paid for it – at least on paper – but there are more and more deals available on the market these days and prospective buyers can afford to be choosy.

So does this mean that Ron DeSantis’ great experiment in turning Florida around has turned out to be a bust? Not really. The Sunshine State remains a place with higher-than-average wages and real estate prices. The state’s median household income is still ranked in the top ten in the nation. However, a surging housing market brought with it higher insurance costs, high mortgage rates, and high home prices. These factors have left many potential real estate customers looking at other options. 

insurance premiums are hitting first-time homeowners the hardest. Those premiums are now 400% higher on average than they were in 2019. This has led to increased fears that Florida’s housing market may be overdue for a dreaded “cost correction.” Such corrections are normal in most consumer markets, but they rarely work out in favor of those who got into the market early and rode it too far. For those who plan to stay where they are and retire, it can still work out well, but for those looking to turn a quick profit, the story tends to play out differently.

The bottom line is that Ron DeSantis took the state in a net positive direction, but now the normal rules of supply and demand are making their voices heard as they always do in the end. If Florida’s economy stabilizes where it is today, it will have been a net positive development. But the gravy train never keeps rolling in the same direction forever.