Do The Oregon Ducks Have A Dillon Gabriel Problem?

The Oregon Ducks won again on Friday night, beating the Michigan State Spartans 31-10 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. The outcome was never in doubt; Oregon jumped to an early lead, and pulled away 21-0 at halftime. 

Oregon racked up 477 total yards on offense, with 6.7 yards per play, respectable if not excellent offensive numbers against a Big Ten opponent. But the score and the production don’t fully explain some issues raised by the play of the Ducks sixth-year senior quarterback, Dillon Gabriel.

Gabriel, now in his third program after transferring from UCF to Oklahoma and now to Oregon, threw two interceptions in Friday’s game that were, well, not befitting of a player with his level of experience. In the first quarter with Oregon set up third and goal from the two-yard-line, Gabriel forced a terrible throw into the end zone, resulting in a Michigan State interception.

Then early in the second quarter, Gabriel and the Ducks were once again set up in a goal-to-go situation. And he force another ill-advised throw to a covered receiver. Sure enough, Michigan State had another easy pick.

EUGENE, OREGON – OCTOBER 4: Quarterback Dillon Gabriel #8 of the Oregon Ducks runs for a touchdown during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans  at Autzen Stadium on October 4, 2024 in Eugene, Oregon.  (Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)

Oregon Ducks Likely To Go As Far As Dillon Gabriel Takes Them

College quarterbacks are inconsistent and frequently make either mental or execution mistakes. But Gabriel is in his sixth year, and Friday was his 55th game played in college football. He’s just a few months away from turning 24-years-old. Those mistakes are ones you frequently see from freshmen or sophomores, not someone who’s older than several quarterbacks starting in the NFL. 

Oregon has elite talent, and still sits eighth in ESPN’s SP+ advanced metric rankings. But that ranking depends on the offense continuing to perform at a top-5 level. The Ducks rushing attack was dominant, with 213 yards and a healthy yards-per-carry average. 

But Gabriel is the key to the rest of the season for Oregon. Starting on October 12th, the schedule gets a lot tougher. Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland and Wisconsin will all have significantly stronger defensive lines than Michigan State. With rushing yards harder to come by, more of the Oregon offense will run through Gabriel. Based on his decision-making thus far, that might not be enough to get the Ducks through to the Big Ten Championship game.