The Morning Briefing: Trump Needs to Be Outside the Margin of Magic Mail-In

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Top O’ the Briefing

Happy Friday, dear Kruiser Morning Briefing friends. Kedwyllic was always a hit with his “Cottage Cheese and Funyuns Delight” at the monthly gathering of the Loretta Swit Lighthearted Zealots Society.

There has been a lot good energy among Trump supporters in the past couple of weeks. Everyone has really been riding a high after JD Vance’s stellar performance in the vice presidential debate on Tuesday. It’s a good feeling to have in the final weeks leading up to an election.

If we don’t let it get to out of control.

It’s been a few weeks since I last wrote about our maddening love/hate relationship with the polls. They’re political crack in an election year and I’ve given up trying to avoid them. Most people have. Let’s lean into one here for a moment.

This is from something that Kevin wrote yesterday:

What a week it’s been for Trump, Vance, and We the People. Commies… not so much.

The Trafalgar Group released a poll on Wednesday showing Trump has increased his lead in the vital swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

The recent poll shows Trump beating Harris by 2.2 points in Michigan, with Trump scoring 47.5% of the votes to Harris’s 45.3%.

On August 31, the Trafalgar Group had Trump beating Harris 47% to 46.6%, a lead of only 0.4%.

Trump is winning in Wisconsin as well, topping the Kackler by 47.1% to 46%. The poll had Trump at 47.3% to Harris’s 46.2%.

“These numbers are the best we’ve seen for Trump in this election cycle. If this momentum holds, he could easily win by a significant margin,” a polling source stated.

That’s all very encouraging. Stephen Green and I have discussed many times on “Five O’Clock Somewhere” that we believe the polls are greatly oversampling Democrats in service of the Kamala myth. That makes Trump’s uptick in the swing states even more impressive.

Back in the Tea Party days, I was fond of saying that a Republican needed to be at least four percentage points ahead of the Democrat to be outside the margin of ACORN. These days, I say outside the margin of the Magic Mail-In Ballot Machine. It doesn’t roll off of the tongue as easily, but it’s accurate.

I’ve occasionally written in the last year that the Republican now needs a six point lead to be clear of votes that may be manufactured in the night. That was because I was really jaded after the 2020 election. I’m still jaded, but I think I’m going back to my original four point cushion.

That means that I can’t take comfort in Trump being ahead by a couple of points in the swing states. Now, if VodkaPundit and I are right about the oversampling of Democrats, those margins are low. I’m not sure they’re two or more points low, however.

I decided to write about this today because I’ve been seeing some exuberance in conservative media that I think borders on irrational. True, I’m happy that Trump is ahead right now, but I’m not going to get carried away by optimism. I can think of no worse way to wrap up this election than by finally passing out from exhaustion in the wee hours of November 6 with Trump leading in all of the swing states, only to wake up and see votes for Harris “Poof!” into existence in all of them.

Let’s all hope that not only are the Democrats being oversampled in the polls but also — as many believe — Trump supporters are being coy with the pollsters. I know I’ve met some gung-ho Trump supporters in places I didn’t expect to. The real sleeper demographic in this election may be the youth vote that the Dems can usually count on.

Relevant Apocalypse No — Resisting the Dems’ Attempts to Make Us Despair

Look, Trump might very well steamroll this thing. It has to be quick though. We all know how the story goes if it’s tight on election night and and they suddenly realize that there are a kajillion mail-in ballots that haven’t been counted in Philadelphia and Atlanta.

Yeah, I get tired thinking about all of this too.

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