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The Major League Baseball postseason is officially underway, and even on day one of the wild card round, it’s already delivering drama.

It started with the Houston Astros hosting the Detroit Tigers, a seeming mismatch favoring the perennial playoff powerhouse Astros. But the Tigers, despite their weaknesses, do have one major advantage: soon-to-be AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. And in his first ever postseason start, on the road, Skubal was dominant.

Skubal struck out six over six shutout innings, allowing just four hits and one walk. 

Houston never got a runner past second base against Skubal, while the Tigers pushed across three runs against Framber Valdez in the second inning. But there’s nothing harder in the playoffs than getting those final three outs, as Detroit found out on Tuesday.

Yordan Alvarez led off the ninth inning with a double, Alex Bregman singled to put runners at first and third. Yainer DIaz singled, scoring a run. A sacrifice bunt moved runners to second and third, leading to a pitching change. The Tigers brought in reliever Beau Brieske, who got a short lineout, before walking Chas McCormick to load the bases. Jason Heyward worked a 2-2 count before lacing a line drive caught by Spencer Torkelson. 

And the entire city of Detroit could be heard exhaling after minutes of held breath.

Wild card mlb playoffs tarik skubal

HOUSTON – OCTOBER 01: Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers reacts recording a strikeout against the Houston Astros in the sixth inning during Game One of the Wild Card Series at Minute Maid Park on October 01, 2024. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Royals-Orioles Join Tigers-Astros With Tight Postseason Games

The series between the Kansas Royals and Baltimore Orioles started much the same way. A tightly fought pitchers duel, with Royals starter Cole Ragans going six dominant shutout innings with eight strikeouts and just four hits allowed. Corbin Burnes was nearly as good for Baltimore, finishing eight innings with one run allowed and three strikeouts. 

The only breakthrough came as a result of a Bobby Witt Jr. two-out single in the top of the sixth inning. 

Still, the Royals had to get through the ninth inning with just a one-run lead. And reliever Lucas Erceg started the inning with a walk ahead of Orioles star catcher Adley Rutschman. Erceg got him to strike out, Colton Cowser to pop up to center, and struck out Herston Kjerstad to end it.

In game three of the quadruple header, the New York Mets quickly fell behind the home Milwaukee Brewers 2-0, but stormed right back, using a wild 5th inning to take control of the game. With two outs and runners on first and second, Jose Iglesias beat out a routine ground ball to first base, allowing Tyrone Taylor to take advantage and score from second. Then after an infield single, Mark Vientos delivered the big blow, knocking in two with a single to right. 

Another two-run single from J.D. Martinez pushed the lead to 8-4, which New York held into the 8th inning. 

So what do these results mean for the remainder of the wild card round and the postseason? Well, the winner of game one of the best of three wild card round has won the series 14 of 16 times. That seems to put the Tigers, Royals and Mets in a great position. But the Tigers burned their one reliable starting pitcher, the Royals run-scoring issues mean their margin for error is razor-thin, and the Mets could finally burn out after a wild travel schedule.

There’s another obvious takeaway; having home field is not necessarily an advantage. The gaps between teams in baseball is too small, outcomes too random. We’ve seen over the years that playoff home field advantage is functionally nonexistent. If the Mets close out an 8-4 win, the road team would be 3-0 on Tuesday, prior to the Padres-Braves game in San Diego.

The Royals would face the Yankees if they can close out Baltimore on Wednesday, with the Tigers going to Cleveland with a win over Houston. The Mets would play Philadelphia in the NLDS, with the winner of the Padres-Braves series playing the Dodgers. It’s already been a blast, and we’re just getting warmed up.