Diamondbacks Are Searching For Playoff Security

Padres vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

Padres vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

I won’t lie to you, I’m on a heater right now. It feels good, but I know they don’t last long enough no matter how long they last. Yesterday I had two plays for Outkick, as I do most days. The NFL got there after we took the Giants at +5.5 and they lost 20-15 to the Cowboys. Perhaps some of you only got a five, but that still gives you a push in worst case scenario. I hit the first touchdown scorer in one of the Monday Night Football games, and hit the first touchdown scorer in last night’s game. That puts me at seven straight wins in the NFL for Outkick. I’ve also had a very good baseball week and am hoping to grab another win as the Padres take on the Diamondbacks.

The Padres made the playoffs, but they are not going to make it as the NL West division winner. If you want to give them a small bouquet of flowers, you can give them credit for the fact that they put pressure on the Dodgers at all. Still, it wasn’t quite enough after the Padres lost two of the past three games. I actually think this is the best case scenario for the Padres as they will not have an extended break before playing baseball again. Wild Card winners, especially ones playing as good of baseball as the Padres have in the second half of the season usually do well in the postseason. Tonight, the Padres don’t need to win, they have clinched a Wild Card, but I also think they are going to be the #1 Wild card overall. I still expect them to put forth a good effort in this one, but I am not sure how long they will let starter Yu Darvish go tonight. I have to imagine they will be a little cautious with him right before the playoffs start. Darvish has put back-to-back quality starts and hasn’t thrown 90 pitches in any of his starts since returning from injury. I’d expect him to do something similar in this game. He hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks this season, but has had mixed success against them, holding them to 57 hits in 224 at-bats, but 23 of them have gone for extra-bases.

Padres RHP Yu Darvish fires a pitch during the 7th inning of Game 1 of the 2022 NL Wild Card Series vs. the Mets at Citi Field in Queens. (Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

The Padres don’t need to win, but the Diamondbacks absolutely need to keep winning if they want a shot at getting back to the World Series. Arizona looked like they had no shot at the playoffs before they got super hot and vaulted themselves into the playoff picture. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best offensive teams all year, but the pitching has been an issue. Additionally, the injuries held the team around a .500 record. As the pitching stabilized and players returned from injury, the team played better and reeled off win after win. Now they have a one-game lead over the Braves and are tied with the Mets for the final two spots in the Wild Card race. This is a very important game for them. Merrill Kelly, one of those pitchers who was injured, takes the hill tonight. Kelly is 5-0 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He did leave his last start due to a right calf cramp, but appears to be well enough to start tonight. He made it through five innings in that one and has allowed just six earned runs in the past 22 innings. Kelly has had good success against the Padres, holding them to a .224 batting average, but he has allowed four home runs to Fernando Tatis Jr. in 22 at-bats.

I’ve said this a few times, but the Padres don’t need to win this game. That doesn’t mean they won’t try to win the game or won’t put forth some effort. The Padres are loaded with talent and I don’t personally want to see them take their foot off the gas, but I also think Darvish doesn’t go very deep into the game. I’m going to take the Diamondbacks to win this one at -125.