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Bill Maher is confident that Donald Trump will lose the election.

“Tonight, I’m saying, I think it’s OVER,” Maher said on Real Time last Friday. “I just think [Trump] is going to lose.”

Maher doubled down on his prediction on Monday. 

“I thought she was great [during the debate] and I couldn’t be more thrilled, and I would put my money on that Kamala is going to win the election,” he said on his Club Random podcast.

“I also understand that Trump, I think, will go away after this. I think he’s kind of finally reached his Joe McCarthy stage where people are tired of it,” Maher predicted.

Put simply, Maher is overconfident.

In most mainstream polls, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump within the four-point margin of error in the three critical battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

However, the same polls, on average, underestimated support for Trump in those three states by nine points in 2016 and five points in 2020. If polling is off even three points this year, there’s an argument that Trump is actually in the lead.

At best, one could argue Harris is a slight favorite.

The Polymarket currently gives the vice president a 51 percent chance of victory. And, frankly, I wouldn’t dispute that calculation. 

On Wednesday morning, OutKick host Dan Dakich asked me to give a percentage on the election. I replied that Harris has about a 55 percent chance of winning but that Trump can quickly recapture the lead.

Let us explain:

Most polls consider Pennsylvania and Nevada “too close to call.” The betting market agrees. When you set those two states aside, the projected electoral map would look as follows:

Trump could very well win Pennsylvania – and thus win the election. Nate Silver’s latest election model projects he will.

Harris is, however, polling ahead of Trump among independent women (arguably the most critical demographic in this election cycle) in both states. Hence, my assessment of a 55 percent chance of winning overall.

Either way, a toss-up election is likely. It’s hard to envision an outcome in which either candidate pulls away.

Thereby, Maher’s uber confidence in a Harris victory is questionable at best. He says the election is “over” and Trump is “done.” The election is not “over.” Donald Trump is not “done.”

Sure, it’d be nice if Trump could stay focused on his policies rather than, say, Taylor Swift and Joe Rogan. He’s running against Swift and Rogan. He’s running against Kamala.

Nonetheless, Trump is still right there.

In football terms, the election is a few minutes into the fourth quarter. At most, Trump trails by a few points. A field goal would take the lead.

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