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Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris moments after the presidential debate on Tuesday, amid pressure from Hollywood trade outlets urging Swift to use her platform to popularize Harris.

By all measures, Taylor Swift is the biggest and most influential celebrity in America. If any non-politician could swing an election, it’d be Taylor Swift.

So, what impact will her endorsement have? The early returns suggest not much.

Per reports, Swift’s endorsement drove 337,826 Americans to vote.gov. However, entrepreneur and podcaster Patrick Bet-David notes that Swift has a mammoth following on Instagram of 284,000,000. That is a conversion rate of just .0012%.

Bet-David broke down the math further, saying “there are a couple of questions we must ask.”

He wondered what percentage of the 337,826 were already going to vote Democrat versus swing voters? And where are most of these voters from? Are most of them from California, New York, Illinois, etc.?

“Out of the 337,826, how many were swing voters that Taylor Swifts endorsement actually impacted how they vote? 5%? 5% of 337,826 = 16,891,” he assumes.

Bet-David concludes that Swift missed an opportunity by endorsing Harris in September and predicts her endorsement will have minimal impact. “

What was a big miss in my opinion was timing of the endorsement. Terrible timing to do it on first debate. They should’ve waited 4-5 more weeks. Endorsements are cool but what really matters is MATH/Data/Timing.”

Read his full breakdown below:

Despite celebrations from CNN and MSNBC over Swift’s endorsement, it would appear that Taylor Swift didn’t give Harris the boost her supporters had expected.

We cited earlier this week that Donald Trump had regained momentum on Nate Silver’s latest model (giving Trump a 64% chance of winning) and in the betting odds (giving Trump a 54% chance).

The betting market has since shifted post-debate. As of publication, Polymarket gives Harris a 50% chance and Trump a 49% – in other words, Harris leads ever so slightly. 

On Thursday, Silver said on X “It’s going to be a couple of days before it’s even theoretically possible to have a reliable estimate of the impact of the debate.”

Ultimately, it looks increasingly likely that the election will boil down to who wins Pennsylvania. All the other noise is just that: noise. 

Including Taylor Swift’s political preferences.

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