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The 2024 Major League Baseball postseason is just a few weeks away, and several playoff spots are still up for grabs. 

The National League wild card is separated by just two games, with the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks barely holding off the surging New York Mets. The preseason NL favorites, the Atlanta Braves, are currently on the outside looking in, a game behind New York. They’ll have a chance though to catch their division rivals in a three-game series in the last week of the regular season. Several teams are on the fringes of contention in the American League wild card race, and the Yankees AL East lead is just half a game over the Baltimore Orioles.

So how do executives who work in the game think that this will all shake out by the end of October? Who’s the favorite to take home the Commissioner’s Trophy?

The Philadelphia Phillies. Kinda.

PHILADELPHIA – Philadelphia Phillies first base Bryce Harper reacts in front of Texas Rangers catcher Jonah Heim after hitting a home run during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park on May 21, 2024. Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Survey Shows Even Insiders Are Confused About This Year’s World Series

ESPN conducted a survey of executives, scouts and other baseball insiders, asking them which team is most likely to win a title. And who those favorites would least like to face in a playoff series. 

In the NL, nine of the 13 industry voters picked the Phillies over Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers, mostly due to LA’s endless injury problems. 

“Even though there seems to be no rhyme or reason to the playoffs these days, I feel like the Phillies are going to break through,” one AL voter told ESPN. “Their starting pitchers have thrown the third-most innings in baseball, and their relievers have the second-best strikeout percentage in MLB. Power plus a bullpen that misses bats, that doesn’t have to get into games until the sixth inning at the earliest, is a good formula.”

The Phillies talent is already strong, and their advantage over LA is exacerbated by the Dodgers’ pitching problems. Yoshinobu Yamamoto returned to the mound successfully on Tuesday, but Gavin Stone is out with shoulder inflammation, Clayton Kershaw is on the IL with a bone spur, and Tyler Glasnow is still working his way back from elbow inflammation. As of September 11, the Dodgers’ playoff rotation is Jack Flaherty, Yamamoto, and some combination of Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller or Landon Knack. Not exactly what the front office envisioned after their offseason spending spree. If the injuries clear up in time though, voters thought the Dodgers could be difficult to beat, thanks to their MVP-trio of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.

“I just can’t wrap my head around getting those three out enough in a series to beat them,” one scout said. “In a game? Sure. But a best-of-five or better, I still like Los Angeles — as long as they can find someone to pitch.”

When asked which team could be the biggest challenger to the Phillies or Dodgers, opinions were split, showing the parity and depth in the sport this season. While teams like the Brewers, Orioles and Yankees got votes, voters chose the San Diego Padres as the sleeper team to look out for. And they might have a point.

The Padres’ bullpen acquisitions at the trade deadline have worked as hoped, giving manager Mike Shildt several reliable options to turn to late in games. Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suarez are able to shorten games in a way that few other bullpens can match. The team’s injury problems have also cleared up at the right time, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish returning. They’ve also somehow turned themselves into the most “clutch” team in baseball history, even though clutch hitting isn’t a predictable, repeatable skill.

READ: San Diego Padres Have Suddenly Turned Into Most ‘Clutch’ Team In Baseball History

The Padres’ rotation, with Dylan Cease, Darvish, Michael King and Joe Musgrove, has depth and quality. Their lineup has generally overperformed, is difficult to strike out, and Jackson Merrill has a strong case to win Rookie of the Year. They might have to get through a wild card series, but assuming they do, the Padres could be a threat to either of the top NL seeds.

With no team likely to win 100 games, there isn’t one dominant, “best team in baseball” this year. It’s making the regular season unpredictable, and October even more so.