NGAD: The 6th Generation Fighter Jet the U.S. Air Force Can’t Do Without

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Key Points and Summary: The U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program seeks a sixth-generation stealth aircraft to succeed the F-22 Raptor. Originally projected at up to $300 million each, Secretary Frank Kendall has since hinted the final unit cost could be closer to the F-35.

-Still, even that lower threshold is tough to achieve without exports that the United States almost certainly won’t allow. Meanwhile, defense industry players have invested heavily in new facilities, awaiting an NGAD contract.

-Supporters like retired USAF General Philip Breedlove argue that only the U.S. has 40-plus years of stealth mastery, a critical advantage in the Indo-Pacific’s looming security challenges.

The Cost, The Exportability, and the Necessity of NGAD

There is no shortage of speculation about the US Air Force’s planning for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.

This aircraft is supposed to be a “6th-generation fighter” – initially proposed in an analytical study over a decade ago in 2014. 

It is planned for introduction into service in the 2030s, dovetailing with what has been called the beginning of the “sunset years” for the F-22A Raptor.

The program to date has been discussed as a single, manned aircraft supplanted by one of more uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) air vehicles, often referred to as “loyal wingman.” 

Measurable progress has been made on that second vehicle, but the future direction of the crewed aircraft has been paused pending a further re-think of the requirement.

Among the great mysteries about the program is what to expect from the aircraft’s price tag. Initially, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall stated that the NGAD could be several orders more expensive than the F-35 or that it could cost up to US $300 million per aircraft.

Is a Lower Price Possible?

But at this past September’s Air Force Association conference, Kendall changed directions, explaining “we haven’t set a number or threshold” for the price.  “I’ll just give you this off the top of my head: the F-35 kind of represents, to me, the upper bounds of what we’d like to pay.”

That would mean considerably less than the “multiple hundreds of millions of dollars” per unit price Kendall has previously cited for NGAD. “I’d like to go lower, though,” he concluded.

This is the current-day Gordian knot of the NGAD program: How can an aircraft that is supposed to be a 6th-generation based on technology that is not matured yet be procured at a reasonable price?

A representative of one of the three major US OEMs who spoke with 19FortyFive described a meeting that objective as a “real head-scratcher,” considering the realities of fighter design and production costs.

NGAD: An Exportable Product?

“The only reason you can procure a fighter aircraft at a low price is through economies of scale – the more of them you build the less the cost per unit.  What that means in the current day is you have to export a sizeable number of them – as was the case in the past with F-16, F/A-18 and in the present with the F-35.

“This brings up the issue of exportability.  We would never allow any of even our closest allies to purchase the 5th-generation F-22 on the grounds that we did not want to release the technology to anyone.  So, it is hard to see the US exporting an even more advanced 6th-generation weapon system.  And without those export orders how do you meet that low-cost objective?”

What complicates the equation further, representatives from the other primes point out, is that some portion of the NGAD’s price is already “baked-in” to the program before production even commences.

The hope of the OEMs, said one company official earlier in 2024, is that “sometime in December there will be some indications of the path forward.”  The passage of time generates no small amount of anxiety, he continued, “because industry has gone out on a limb building a considerable number of square metres of new facilities” – all specifically in anticipation of an NGAD award.

The U.S. Edge In Stealth Technology

Some other realities may trump cost problems. 

This is the conclusion after speaking with one of the advocates for the NGAD – former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and retired USAF 4-star general, Philip Breedlove.  With over 3,500 hours in fighter aircraft – primarily the F-16 and has flown combat missions in Bosnia and Kosovo, he has first-hand experience with the need for an aircraft to be stealthier than ever in the modern-day air defense environment.

Stealth, he emphasizes, is a field of aircraft design where the US has a definite edge over everyone else.

“Do you know how long it takes to acquire 40 years of experience in designing stealthy aircraft?”  he asked.  “Well, let me tell you” he said answering before I could respond.  “It takes 40 years there are no shortcuts.  We have had other countries get their hands on pieces of our stuff, but they cannot figure out how to duplicate it [the stealthy, radar-absorbing materials].  Even if they could find a way, they do not have the capability to do so on an industrial scale.”

“So, you have people who say they are building 5th-generation aircraft and everyone then gets to talk about what it means.   But if you are not building something that is stealthy then it is not a 5th-generation aircraft.  So, what you have are other countries trying to say they have 5th-gen capable aeroplane but they really do not.”

If The Future Conflict Will Be in Asia, Then NGAD is the Indispensable Solution

So, now enter the 6th-generation, as Breedlove explained.  “So, some people are out there saying ‘we are skipping 5th-generation and going straight to 6th’. But none of them have ever built a stealthy aircraft in their life. They have never gone through the industrial development, and they are not capable of doing so.”

That US edge in the experience with this technology is the key to any future conflict. Most military strategists today posit that the conflict we need to prepare for most is the one that could take place in Asia.  

“The requirement is a US 6th-generation aircraft be stealthy in more ways than one.  It will add several more leaps in technology that the world does not understand.   Because of those capabilities the NGAD will be capable of performing missions in the Pacific that 5th-generation fighters cannot.”

Given the distances in the Pacific theatre, the increasing ranges of weapon systems, and the proliferation of improved air defense technology all create a scenario where, as Breedlove describes, “we will need a platform like NGAD to earn our way into that fight.”

With Asian nations now taking an increasing interest in the Ukraine war with Russia trying to strengthen its ties with China and North Korea, what happens in the Pacific is increasingly linked to the rest of the world. 

Which may make the NGAD more critical than ever.

About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson 

Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw and has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defence technology and weapon systems design.  Over the past 30 years he has resided at one time or another in Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.