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Russia’s aggression against Ukraine continues to have global repercussions. Among them, at least in part, is the fall of the vicious Assad regime. This regime collapse has ramifications that can and should go beyond the Middle East. Specifically, this event opens the way to a full-fledged Israeli alignment with Ukraine, a policy that would benefit both sides.

Syria’s Repercussions

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s state has eliminated any need for Israel to have a working agreement with Russia regarding Syria. For a long time, and despite some Russian policymakers’ misgivings, Israel and Russia managed a working agreement that Israel would not attack Russian bases in Syria.

At the same time, Moscow looked the other way if Israel struck at Iranian logistical support for Hamas and Hezbollah. This arrangement, based on pure Realpolitik, lasted until Moscow’s over-extension in Ukraine forced it into a much deeper alignment, if not a potential alliance, with Iran. The consequences of that alignment are now visible to everyone.

Russia now depends on regular supplies of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles and has transferred the Su-35 fighter to Iran, is about to sign a significant defense agreement with Tehran, and has transferred weapons to Hamas, Hezbollah, and also ship sighting technology to the Houthis in Yemen. Russia has cast its lot with Iran, sundering the connection to Israel. Moreover, during the war against Ukraine, Putin, on several occasions, has invoked Russia’s traditional Anti-Semitism, another sign that Russian Jewry is again in potential danger and that, if pressed, Putin has no hesitancy in playing the Anti-Semitic card. Obviously, such a regime cannot serve as a partner for Israel.

While Israel had other priorities until now and was hardly going to strike at Russian targets until it dealt with Hamas and Hezbollah, it no longer needs to worry about Russian military action in Syria. Russia will be lucky to retain its bases there but will not have an Iranian ally in Syria.

Syria’s new regime has made clear that it will no longer serve as the logistical lynchpin of Iranian strategy to forge a multi-theater ring of fire around Israel, including Syria. The latter also served as the primary link to both these Iranian-backed terrorist groups.

That strategy now lies in ruins, and Iran’s vulnerability to Israeli and potential US strikes is now plainly visible.

Israel Becomes Unintangled with Russia

At this point, there are no serious geostrategic obstacles to Israel aligning with Ukraine. Indeed, this alignment might benefit both governments.

The benefits to Ukraine are apparent. It acquires a new battle-tested ally with superb and proven intelligence and defense production capability.  

Hopefully, this alignment will lead to Israeli supplies to Ukraine. Indeed, there are earlier reports of Israeli shipments of early-warning systems to Ukraine.

At the same time, this alignment further extends the democratic alliance against the well-known Axis of Upheaval: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ties with Israel will strengthen its influence in Washington under the Trump Administration.

Outlining the Axis

Beyond these considerations, the benefits to Israel are equally significant. First, we and Israel must grasp, as Ukraine does, that these two wars are, in effect, one war in separate theaters. They are wars against the US, its allies, and the idea of democracy.

And unless both Israel and Ukraine win, i.e., their territorial integrity is restored or maintained, foreign troops are expelled, acts of war cease, and their freedom to conduct their foreign policies as they see fit is recognized, both these theaters of the Axis’ war against the West will be aflame for years to come.

Second, support for Ukraine will improve Israel’s standing in Europe, which has undeservedly but genuinely suffered during the war against Hamas and Hezbollah.

Third, this alignment adds to the pressure on Iran and Russia since mutual intelligence sharing and technology transfer enables Ukraine and Israel to strike Russian and Iranian targets more effectively.  

Fourth, this alignment implicitly functions to keep Turkey’s dreams of revived hegemony in the Levant in check. Though Turkey has been a reliable partner to Ukraine and rightly closed the Straits when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it nonetheless harbors dreams of playing the kingpin in the Middle East, and its leader, President Erdogan, is instinctively hostile to Israel and a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.  Thus, this alignment checks Turkish ambitions in the Black Sea and Mediterranean as well as the Russo-Iranian axis in the Middle East. 

Fifth, should this alignment add another element, and in this case, a battle-tested potential supplier of arms and technologies to Ukraine, which clearly needs all the help it can get from foreign suppliers to survive, let alone prevail? 

Sixth, To the extent that Iran comes under increasing pressure and even threat, its ability to provide Russia with weapons will probably fall off, possibly to the degree that Ukraine can strike back at Russian forces and targets, including Russia’s defense industry, which is already experiencing difficulties despite its mobilization, will likewise find it hard to transfer weapons systems to Iran.

Therefore, for Israel, a genuine strategic partnership with Ukraine benefits it strategically and equally, if not more importantly, morally. It reaffirms its democratic identity and aligns with partner states against those who threaten both democracy and the existence of both Ukraine and Israel.

Assad and Putin. Image: Creative Commons.

At the same time, it strengthens the US alliance network and resistance to the Axis of Upheaval that supports Russian aggression and Iran’s strategy of terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

The Path Forward

There are no longer grounds for postponing this alignment or equivocating about it as both states’ enemies have now suffered serious strategic defeats in the Middle East. Since the strategic destinies of both Israel and Ukraine are bound up with each other, it is now time for both governments to seize the opportunity that lies before them, for more often than not, there are no second chances in world politics.

About the Author: Dr. Stephen Blank 

Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. He has published over 900 articles and monographs on Soviet/Russian, U.S., Asian, and European military and foreign policies, testified frequently before Congress on Russia, China, and Central Asia, consulted for the Central Intelligence Agency, major think tanks and foundations, chaired major international conferences in the U.S. and in Florence; Prague; and London, and has been a commentator on foreign affairs in the media in the U.S. and abroad. He has also advised major corporations on investing in Russia and is a consultant for the Gerson Lehrmann Group. He is the author of Russo-Chinese Energy Relations: Politics in Command (London: Global Markets Briefing, 2006), and Natural Allies? Regional Security in Asia and Prospects for Indo-American Strategic Cooperation (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2005). Dr. Blank is also the author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin’s Commissariat of Nationalities (Greenwood, 1994); and the co-editor of The Soviet Military and the Future (Greenwood, 1992).