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Key Points and Summary: The AUKUS pact between Australia, the UK, and the US aims to counter China’s growing naval threat in the Indo-Pacific. Its goals include equipping Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and advancing defense technologies like AI and hypersonics.

-However, challenges remain, including delays in shipbuilding and the decade-long wait for full submarine capabilities. While AUKUS enhances trilateral cooperation, it relies heavily on regional allies like Japan and South Korea to address immediate contingencies.

-As the pact progresses, it promises a more modernized and integrated defense strategy for regional stability, though its readiness for sudden crises is limited.

Australia’s Nuclear Submarine Ambitions: Can AUKUS Deliver on Time?

Against growing threats in the Indo-Pacific, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States formed a maritime trilateral pact nicknamed AUKUS on September 15th, 2021. The alliance currently has two main goals between the allied states.

The first goal is to enhance Australia’s ability in submarine warfare, particularly in nuclear-powered attack submarines, while enhancing British and American nuclear-powered submarine rotations on the continent. The second is to improve capabilities, which include artificial intelligence quantum technologies, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic software, and electronic warfare.

In 2025, AUKUS is moving towards its goals and becoming a major trilateral force in the Asia-Pacific. Still, a significant question remains—is the pact ready for future naval warfare and sudden contingencies?

Solidifying AUKUS

Initially planning a joint attack-class submarine program with France, Australia ultimately chose to conduct one with the UK and the US at the last moment before the French deal was solidified. The breach of contract ended up costing Australia $584 million and led to a foreign relations rift between all four countries. Nevertheless, tensions were mitigated through mediation. 

Over the next five years, up to 2030, the Australian Navy and naval contractors will simultaneously build their own sovereign nuclear-powered general-purpose attack submarines (SSNs). SSNs carry capabilities of conventional arms but are amongst the elite in naval warfare today.

Current Inventory

Under the nuclear-powered fleet, named SSN-AUKUS/SSN-A, the pact will replace Australia’s older Collins-class submarine fleet, which is being developed under BAE Systems. Currently, Australia operates diesel-electric submarines, but under AUKUS, the Australian Navy will have nuclear propulsion technology.

The aforementioned Pillar II is currently progressing in AUKUS’ solidification. Pillar II can extend defense cooperation with other Indo-Pacific allies, such as Japan and New Zealand, and Western partners, such as Canada and France.

Australian workers will be embedded in American and British industrial naval facilities and enhance their knowledge of their SSNs. Concurrently, construction and maintenance facilities for the nuclear-powered submarines will be located in Osborne.

Joint military exercises in artificial intelligence took place in May 2023, and in the same month, President Biden moved to expedite defense trade to meet the deadlines by 2023. Alongside Australia’s naval remilitarization and enhancement, the United States will sell three to five Virginia Class SSNs to the former anytime between 2027 and the early 2030s.

A Brewing Storm in Asia

During the Global War on Terrorism, the long-standing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and drone strikes across eight countries, the United States and its allies neglected a growing threat in the Indo-Pacific. Over the last three decades, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone major militarization—particularly in the Navy, while the US has neglected its own. 

China currently possesses the world’s largest naval force, with 234 warships compared to 219 by the United States. Furthermore, China’s amphibious force is primarily concentrated in the Asian Pacific, whereas the US Navy is split into Seven Fleets with various regional responsibilities.

Tensions have risen over PLA’s manufactured islands in the South China Sea in the vicinity of Vietnam and the Philippines and the simulated invasion exercises and harassment of Taiwanese and Filipino vessels. With China’s growing advantage in naval forces in the Indo-Pacific, AUKUS helps supplement US amphibious stagnation.

Despite the Decade-Long Wait, is AUKUS Ready to Manage Contingencies?

Though AUKUS will enhance the trilateral defense of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the pact is not committed to responding to immediate crises. It will not replace any current treaties in the Indo-Pacific. 

American naval stagnation, as seen during the past few decades, is also placing a significant challenge to the ongoing timeframe. The International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that US shipyards only produce 1.3 Virginia-class vessels per year instead of the stated goal of 2.3 to supplement both American and Australian defense.

Nevertheless, AUKUS allows a broader integration of technological advances in its partners and much-needed modernization of the Australian Navy. AUKUS can lead to growing military exercises and supply chains in the Indo-Pacific, which opens industrialization and intelligence gathering.

Meanwhile, the countries that makeup AUKUS enjoy the luxury of having strong allies and comprehensive understandings with various countries in the Indo-Pacific while maintaining regional balance amidst looming threats. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and India are all preparing for a rapidly militarized China, and all have a degree of conflict and concern with Beijing’s ambitions.

Japan and South Korea are critical to maintaining Indo-Pacific stability, as both countries have capable militaries with technological advances and fast shipbuilding and deployment capabilities. The ties the Biden Administration helped mold between Seoul and Tokyo are instrumental. While AUKUS continues to commit to its pillars, regional partners will be entrusted to help counterbalance threats.

AUKUS overall will be a standard in growing regional cooperation between three treaty allies in industrialization in warfare, naval enhancement amphibious maneuvers, and Indo-Pacific stability. As the pillars continue to be implemented, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States will continue to bolster each other for regional stability and security.

About the Author: Julian McBride 

Julian McBride, a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist born in New York. He is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO that aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.”