AUKUS Submarine Deal: Bad News for the U.S. Navy?

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Key Points and Summary: The AUKUS agreement promises to revolutionize Australia’s submarine fleet with three U.S.-built Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines and the future development of the SSN-AUKUS.

-The partnership bolsters Australia’s undersea warfare capabilities and strengthens alliances with the U.S. and U.K. However, concerns arise over America’s struggling shipyards, already delayed in fulfilling U.S. Navy needs.

-While AUKUS enhances allied training and operational synergy, questions linger about its strategic value for the U.S., especially under Donald Trump’s “America First” perspective. As China’s navy expands, ensuring reciprocal benefits and robust U.S. naval capacity remains crucial for long-term success.

The AUKUS Dilemma: Can U.S. Shipyards Keep Up with Demand?

On its face, the AUKUS agreement is a winning idea. Three allies merged their human capital to produce modern nuclear-powered submarines for the Australians, with the United States and the United Kingdom sharing brain power, elbow grease, and ingenuity. 

The trilateral partnership was trumpeted in the media as a new way to increase what I call “submarine diplomacy” among the three militaries to improve morale and national prestige in Australia.

The partnership was announced in 2021, but it wasn’t just about submarines. The Australians would receive many crown jewels from the United States and Britain. In a show of how good the alliance was with the British and Americans, the two countries shared numerous features of modern warfare with the Australians.

There was a knowledge transfer about cyber operations, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, and other whiz-bang technologies. The Aussies were beyond excited.

But will it all come to fruition? Is this a good deal for the U.S.?

PROS: Three News Submarines for the Australian Navy

First, let’s look at the submarine deal. 

The Australians have deployed older diesel-electric subs for years in an undersea force that desperately needed to be updated. 

Australia will now buy three Virginia-class nuclear-powered conventionally armed submarines. There is a future option for two more. 

This will replace the older fleet of Australian boats by the 2030s.

Future Collaboration on Newfangled Boat 

Moreover, the three partners will even build a next-generation sub called the SSN-AUKUS that probably won’t emerge with the British navy until the 2030s or 2040s. 

Still, it is good news for the NATO alliance and for efforts to eclipse Russia in undersea warfare.

Meanwhile, the Aussie sailors will get a baptism from American and British submarine personnel. 

The allies will learn from each other to improve tactics and techniques under the sea to make boats more survivable and allow them to win battles under the waves. 

Joint Training Opportunities

There’s going to be a “Submarine Rotational Force-West,” according to National Defense Magazine, plus a “rotational presence at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia of one U.K. and up to four U.S. nuclear-powered submarines, as early as 2027,” the publication stated, as Peter Suciu noted.

CONS: Can American Shipyards Keep Up? 

This assumes that the United States and Britain have a fully functioning defense industrial base for producing submarines. 

That’s not entirely clear to the Americans, as many subs still need to be built for the U.S. Navy. It’s excellent to help allies, but domestic submarine building must be a priority. 

The U.S. Virginia-class submarine program has endured a three-year delay. The Americans are trying to build up the defense industrial base for submarines. Over the years, this has withered to one-third of its potential. Covid-19 ravaged the shipyards. This resulted in a loss of time due to supply chain snarls and a lack of workers. Indeed, all American shipyards are having trouble finding qualified employees. It’s a pity because these are often high-paying positions with job security, but young Americans are choosing other fields and are not replacing retiring workers.

Congress is listening, and lawmakers have hatched a bill called the bipartisan SHIPS for America Act to rectify those problems and emphasize the refurbishment of shipyards. China has the most productive shipbuilding industry in the world. Beijing boasts a larger navy and new Chinese vessels seem to be sprouting up all over the Indo-Pacific.

I’m all for alliances, especially with the United Kingdom and Australia. The partnership between the United States and the United Kingdom is ironclad. Working with the Australians is a natural fit. The Aussies are in a dangerous neighborhood, with China flexing its muscles. As a result, the U.S. military has sent Marines to Darwin, Australia, to help. 

But building three additional submarines for Australia could be a stretch. The U.S. shipbuilding industry is gasping for air. More money must be invested to make these facilities meet their full capacity. The deal is good for defense contractors but maybe not for the overall grand strategy in an America First outlook that Donald Trump espouses. 

AUKUS: What Will Trump Say?

The question is – what’s in it for the United States? What does Australia give us besides payment for the subs? It’s great to give an ally a leg up since these new subs will boost the Australian Navy significantly. But America needs subs, too, and the U.S. Navy is trying to keep up with China. 

Donald Trump does not like free riders, and he questions alliances that don’t give the United States a reciprocal arrangement that puts America number one. He may question the AUKUS agreement. The new president may not cancel it altogether, but you could hear some grumbling from the White House that the United States is not getting enough out of the deal.

Hopefully, the Australians and the British will convince him otherwise. 

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.