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The United States and incoming President Donald Trump face a mess in Eastern Europe as the war in Ukraine continues to drag on into its third year. Trump inherited this problem from the Biden administration, but this problem must be resolved.

President Trump has yet to reveal his administration’s official policy on Ukraine, but if his comments are any indication of what his plans are, then the situation in Ukraine looks even more dire for President Zelenskyy and the sovereignty of Ukraine. Trump’s son, Donald Jr., stated that on January 20, Ukraine’s “allowance” was over.

The United States has been the biggest supplier of arms and ammunition to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. The US has contributed over $64 billion in arms, ammunition, and financial support. That is more than all of Europe combined. 

That’s important because, right now, it is unclear if Ukraine can win the war even with US supplies. Ukraine’s hope for victory would dwindle without US assistance unless Europe significantly increases support. And that doesn’t appear likely. Germany is about to cut its assistance by half. 

Can Ukraine Win, Can Russia? Problems For Zelensky

The Ukrainian government faces two critical issues in the ongoing war of attrition against Russia. 

First, is that Russia has a tremendous manpower advantage over Ukraine. The Russians haven’t had to resort to conscription yet to build a large enough army to continue the war, even though their casualties have been horrendous. 

Chechyan troops of dubious distinction have also bolstered the Russians, and recently, Moscow added 10,000 North Korean troops.

They’ve been able to entice convicts out of prison and other “volunteers” with promises of good pay and benefits while showing little concern for their lives, shoving them into the front lines with little training and ordering mass attacks—turning soldiers into cannon fodder. 

This war of attrition favors the Russians simply because they have many more troops to toss into the fray. Neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians publish casualty reports in an effort not to undermine morale. 

But the Ukrainians, especially in the south and east of the country, have had to deal with Russia attacking civilian targets. Russia has not had to deal with that yet. Citizens, however, are beginning to realize the cost as more and more casualties mount, even in a dictatorship where censorship rules the day. 

Another issue for Kyiv is weapons. They don’t produce any tanks, aircraft, missiles, heavy artillery, drones, ammunition, etc., that they require so badly. Ukraine is entirely dependent on the West for those. 

Javelin anti-tank missile. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.

Russia produces most of its weapons, and it has imported drones from Iran, artillery ammunition from North Korea, and unspecified aid from China.

War Of Attrition Showing Signs of Wearing on Ukraine

Troubling signs show in Ukraine’s south and east, especially in the contested Donbas region. The Russians are slowly plodding along with mass attacks against prepared Ukrainian positions. And despite sustaining casualties of dead and wounded to about 1,000 troops per day during September, the Russians continue these attacks. 

And they are gaining ground. Slowly and inexorably, Russian advances continue. Ukrainian armed forces have resorted to the tactics from the first days of the war, trading some pieces of land for maximum enemy losses of attacking troops. 

This strategy has the dual effect of undermining the morale of the Ukrainian people and constantly hearing reports of Russian gains. It limits Ukraine’s ability to carry out efforts to retake those towns, wearing down the people’s resolve. 

The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk area of Russia was a massive embarrassment to the Russian military and forced them to withdraw troops fighting in Ukraine to counter the threat. But Russia has retaken about 40 percent of the territory lost. 

Putin Has Played The “Escalation” Card To the West

The war hasn’t exactly played out to Putin’s plans. Russia was utterly unprepared for the amount of Ukrainian resistance during the early days of Putin’s “special military operation.” The losses of troops and equipment were horrendous. But with each setback, Putin preyed upon Western fears of escalation. When Ukraine began using American-made missiles to strike inside Russia, Putin threatened to revise Russia’s nuclear doctrine, making it easier to launch nuclear missiles.

In June, Putin warned European countries supporting Ukraine when he used a passive-aggressive threat that  Russia had “many more tactical nuclear weapons than there are on the European continent, even if the United States brings theirs over.”

What Will The US Do?

This is the question that is being asked of the incoming Trump administration. This is a war he inherited, but that doesn’t matter now. Whatever the resolution, it will be a reflection of Trump’s second presidency. 

If Ukraine were to fall, it would be a major embarrassment to his administration. He promised to end the war within 24 hours of assuming office on January 20. That promise is out the window as Moscow flatly rejected any proposal to end the war that is not on Putin’s terms. 

That is something to remember. While the West talks about negotiations and proposals, Putin has not budged. He has continued his hybrid war against Europe with his actions, aided by Iran, China, and North Korea.

This gambit in Ukraine is a significant play against global US power. If he were to win, it would significantly hit US power and reputation. China would become much more emboldened against Taiwan, and Russia would continue to consider expansion. 

However, Russia doesn’t have the means to complete a total Ukrainian takedown unless Europe backs down under the threats of escalation. Remember “peace in our time?”

Europe, however, needs to double down on its support of Ukraine. The war and the rebuilding of Ukraine will fall to the West. Russia would leave it subservient and in ruins.

President Trump may not like it, but the US needs to continue to support Ukraine. Otherwise, the country may indeed fall. 

About the Author: 

Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in other military publications.