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President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is making no effort to disguise his ambitions. In a bold declaration following the first meeting of Turkey’s cabinet, Erdogan made it clear that he intends to target the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

His message to Washington was unequivocal:

“A new era has begun in Syria… Turkey has shown what kind of will it has to protect its survival and security. If it comes to that again, ‘we may come suddenly one night’. The circle is narrowing for the separatist organization and its extensions in Syria. As the government and the alliance, we will achieve our goal of a terror-free Turkey, one way or another. Of course, we hope this will happen safely. If this road is blocked and dynamited, then we will not hesitate to strike with the iron fist of the state wrapped in velvet gloves.”

While the Biden administration nears the end of its term, Erdogan is laying the groundwork for a military assault to neutralize the SDF. Recent clashes between the SDF and Turkish-backed militias operating under the “Syrian National Army” banner underscore Erdogan’s determination.

The SDF, recognized globally for its pivotal role in combating the Islamic State (ISIS), now faces an existential threat as it fights to defend its autonomous zone in northern Syria. For Syrian Kurds and other communities opposed to jihadist governance, Erdogan’s ambitions signal a grim future.

The interim government in Syria, dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), raises additional concerns. Despite presenting a rebranded image, HTS has historical connections to extremist groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda. Its leaders, now donning suits and offering platitudes of moderation, cannot hide their true intentions.

HTS officials have left a disturbing trail of evidence. The interim Minister of Justice is accused of overseeing public executions of Syrian women. Anas Khattab, who is a U.N designated terrorist, previously recruited by Turkey’s intelligence service MIT, was appointed Syria’s interim intelligence chief. Khattab has previous ties to ISIS-linked Al Nusrah front. The interim head of Syria’s Women’s Affairs declared she would not “not allow space for those who disagree with my views [on women’s affairs].

There are many other interim cabinet officials with known ties to al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, and HTS. Many of the cabinet members are thought to hold dual Syrian-Turkish nationality, including Syria’s interim Foreign Minister. Meanwhile, HTS elites have declared that Syria’s interim government will operate under Islamic law and delay democratic elections for up to four years. Such a delay raises serious doubts about their commitment to representative governance.

European leaders are not buying HTS’s claims of moderation. During a visit to Syria, Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock criticized the group and dismissed any role for Germany as a “financier of Islamist structures.” HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s refusal to shake the German minister’s hand only reinforced skepticism.

The Syria Crisis Unfolds

As outgoing Biden administration officials quietly update their resumes, Washington must face the uncomfortable truth: while Turkish-backed jihadists may have helped dislodge the Assad regime, they are paving the way for another authoritarian and extremist government.

Erdogan’s motives extend beyond ideology. Ankara seeks to install a pliable regime in Damascus, one that aligns with Turkey’s strategic interests. Turkey is prepared to offer military aid, training, and reconstruction support, along with lucrative contracts for Turkish firms. Erdogan also wants HTS to assist in eliminating the SDF, reinforcing his tough-on-terrorism image domestically.

Currently, Erdogan is amassing troops along Turkey’s border with Syria. Turkish air support has already aided the Syrian National Army, and a full-scale military incursion appears imminent. If Washington fails to act decisively, it must brace for the consequences of Erdogan’s unchecked ambitions.

F-16I Sufa. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Israel, too, is watching closely. A recent report by Israel’s Nagel Commission warned of the dangers posed by stronger ties between Turkey and a jihadist-led Syrian government. Such an alliance, the report cautioned, could fast-track the emergence of a Syrian-Turkish threat.

The question is no longer whether Erdogan will act but what the United States and its allies will do to prevent a disaster. Time is running out.

About the Author: Sinan Ciddi 

Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at FDD and an expert on Turkish politics. He is also an Associate Professor of National Security Studies at Marine Corps University (MCU). Prior to joining MCU, Sinan was the Executive Director of the Institute of Turkish Studies, based at Georgetown University (2011-2020). He continues to serve as an Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Sinan is the author of Kemalism in Turkish Politics: The Republican People’s Party: Secularism and Nationalism (Routledge, January 2009) a book which explains the electoral weakness of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party. He obtained his Ph.D. from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London in 2007 in the field of Political Science.