Sony Open 2025 Best Bets: Outrights, Finishing Positions, One-And-Done Pick

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It’s taken only one tournament in the 2025 PGA TOUR season for me to be pissed off about betting on golf. My favorite golfer, Hideki Matsuyama, had the lowest score in TOUR history (-35) in his win at The Sentry. Yet, I somehow didn’t bet him. On top of that, my top pick to win The Sentry, Sungjae Im, finished third. It feels like “new year, same bullsh*t” in golf betting. 

Obviously, my three picks to win The Sentry lost. My only winning ticket was a top-20 bet on Adam Scott, and he finished T15. After The Sentry, I’m -2.45 units (u) on the PGA TOUR 2025 season. The PGA TOUR stays in Hawaii for another week to play a tournament I’ve cashed a winner in: Sony Open 2025 at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. 

In addition to my outright and placement bets, I’ll give out my “One-And-Done” pick in the “Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup”. Rather than me regurgitating what golf experts have posted on X, you can see the course facts, Sony Open history, and the tee times for the first two rounds below. 

Sony Open 2025 Betting Card

Picks To Win 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com. 

Austin Eckroat (+4000)

Last year, Eckroat was T42 in the Sony Open. He started hot but melted down on the weekend. Eckroat scored 65 and 66 in the first two rounds, then 69 and 72 in the final two. However, Eckroat was T12 at the 2023 Sony Open in his first season on the PGA TOUR, and he plays these short, positional courses well. 

Eckroat won the 2024 Cognizant Classic last March, finished 17th at the 2024 RBC Heritage (“signature event”), sixth in the 2024 Wyndham Championship, and T18 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship (first round of the FedExCup Playoffs). These events are on crossover courses to Waialae.

Most approach shots at Waialae are from 150-200 yards, which is Eckroat’s sweet spot. He ranked 17th in the 150-175 approach (APP) bucket and 13th in the 175-200 bucket on TOUR last season. Eckroat has gained strokes putting at all four crossover courses mentioned above. 

Also, Eckroat won the World Wide Technology Championship in November in the FedEx Fall swing, making him one of the few golfers in the Sony Open field with recent win equity. His recent win is another reason why I’m excusing him for playing like sh*t on the weekend at Waialae last year. 

Eckroat’s game is in a good place and he is talented. He was a four-time All-American at Oklahoma State from 2017-20 and won the 2018 national championship, and is only 25 years old. Fun fact: Eckroat turns 26 on January 12. Celebrating his third PGA TOUR win on his birthday would probably be a dream come true for Eckroat.

BET 0.5u on Austin Eckroat (+4000) to profit 20u 

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Luke Clanton (+4000)

This kid is only 21 years old, still an amateur, and plays on Florida State’s golf team. Clanton earned a sponsored exemption for the Sony Open and is 87th in the Official World Golf Rankings after lighting the TOUR up in his few starts last season. He finished T10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T2 at the John Deere Classic, fifth at the Wyndham, and T2 at The RSM Classic. 

Over the last 36 rounds, Clanton leads the field in SG: OTT and ranks third in SG: APP, seventh in Par 4 scoring, and second birdie-or-better rate, per BetTheNumber.com. While I don’t feel great about betting on an amateur, Clanton has the game to win now, and he’s had shorter odds in previous TOUR starts. It is what it is. I guess I’m betting on an amateur. 

BET 0.5u on Luke Clanton (+4000) to profit 20u 

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Daniel Berger (+6000)

Berger finally started to play well in the FedEx Fall swing after struggling for most of his first season back from missing all of 2023 with a back injury. He finished seventh at the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship in October and T2 at The RSM in November. 

At the peak of his powers, Berger was an accurate ball striker who also played well at courses like Waialae. According to Fantasy National, Berger is third in total Strokes Gained (SG) at easy, Par-70 courses over his last 36 rounds, which dates back to before he got hurt. 

Berger has made every cut in his six career starts at Waialae, including T13 in 2015, T14 in 2018, and T7 in 2021, his most recent Sony Open. These fields were before the LIV Tour stole some of the PGA TOUR players. 

Finally, Berger has four career PGA TOUR wins: Back-to-back FedEx St. Jude Classics in 2016-17, the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, and the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He has lost two playoffs in his career: the 2017 Travelers Championship and The Honda Classic in 2015. All of those tourneys are at courses similar to Waialae. 

BET 0.33u on Daniel Berger (+6000) to profit 20u 

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Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000) 

The 2024 PGA TOUR University valedictorian didn’t make his TOUR debut on TOUR until the 2024 Travelers Championship in June. Hence, Thorbjornsen didn’t make enough starts last season to qualify for the PGA TOUR’s stats leaderboards. 

But, his Par 4 scoring average last season was 3.94, which would’ve been third behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (3.88) and No. 2 Xander Schauffele (3.92). Thorbjornsen’s proximity to the hole on APP shots from 150-175 yards would rank second and 175-200 yards would rank 18th for a full year. 

Even though Waialae is a short course, Thorbjornsen’s power still helps him here. He can “club down” off-the-tee (OTT) and not worry about the distance but hitting the fairway or missing in the right spots, so to speak. Meanwhile, weak hitters need to worry about accuracy and distance OTT. 

Thorbjornsen tied for eighth in his last start, The RSM in November at Sea Island Golf Club, one of the smallest courses on TOUR. His -13 final score was only three strokes behind the winner, Maverick McNealy. You wouldn’t think Sea Island is his type of course, but Thorbjornsen overpowered it. 

Lastly, he gained strokes in the four major golf stats — OTT, APP, Around-the-Green, and Putting — at The RSM. So, Thorbjornsen played well at the end of the FedExCup Fall Swing, and he has the talent to win a major on TOUR. 

BET 0.25u on Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000) to profit 20u 

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Finishing Position Bets 

Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings. BetMGM never applies ‘dead heat’ rules. DraftKings has top-5, -10, and -20 bets that “include ties” for the Sony Open 2025. 

Taylor Pendrith (+150) Top-20 at DraftKings: 0.75u to profit 1.1u

The Canadian was T10 at the Sony Open last year and picked up more than 5.0 strokes putting, per BetTheNumber.com. Pendrith had 10 more top-20 finishes last year, including his first PGA TOUR win at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in May. He hit the ground running last week by finishing T13 at The Sentry 2025 and scoring an albatross (double eagle). 

Si Woo Kim (+150) Top-20 at BetMGM: : 0.75u to profit 1.1u

Kim entered my “Golf Betting Hall of Fame” after cashing a +4000 outright ticket for me at the 2023 Sony Open. Unfortunately, Si Woo was T42 in his Sony Open title defense last year, but he gained 6.3 strokes tee-to-green. Plus, Si Woo has 11 top-20s in his last 25 starts, highlighted by a T5 in the BMW and a T6 in THE PLAYERS Championship. 

At first glance, Kim’s T32 in The Sentry last week is nothing to write home about. But, he shot -19 after a first-round +3. Since it was the first event of 2025, perhaps Si Woo just needed to knock the rust off. Regardless, +150 for Kim’s top-20 is too good to pass up given his upside and legit “win equity” as a four-time PGA TOUR champion.  

Harry Hall (+200) Top-20 at BetMGM: 0.75u to profit 1.5u 

I’m just playing the hot hand here. Hall has eight top-20s in his last 12 international starts, including a win at the ISCO Championship (an alternate event to The Open Championship) and four consecutive T14 finishes or better. According to DataGolf.com, Hall has gained strokes putting in 13 straight events with shot-link data. 

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Sony Open 2025 One-And-Done Pick: Austin Eckroat 

As crazy as this sounds, golf betting is a pillar of me and my girlfriend’s relationship. So, one of her Christmas gifts was a split entry with me in the “Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup”, beginning with the Sony Open and ending with the second round of the FedExCup Playoffs (BMW Championship). 

With that in mind, I’ll be sprinkling in her analysis occasionally. Believe it or not, she correctly picked three consecutive winners last year based on “vibes”. (Whatever that means). That said, she initially wanted to go with Pendrith here, but I’m vetoing it even though I said I wouldn’t. 

Basically, Eckroat was the 36-hole leader at the 2024 Sony Open, and I’d rather use Pendrith in a weaker field. If Pendrith does better than Eckroat, I’ll be in the dog house, and she gets veto power next week. Instead of telling her directly, I’ll have her read this. Hopefully, I don’t lose a betting partner after the first week. More importantly, hopefully, Eckroat wins. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.