NFL Super Wild Card Betting Picks To Fade From Struggling Analyst

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The headline basically says it: I limped into the end of the NFL season on a pretty terrible run. In fact, because of the business around the holidays, I didn’t post picks for Week 17 or 18. Ultimately, I ended the regular season 33-38-1. Not good. 

But it gets worse. I actually had a pretty good run in the middle of the season before a TERRIBLE stretch toward the end (7-19-1 from Week 12-16). Sure, I blamed the holidays for the break, but I went 0-6-1 in Week 16 and, to be honest, that was demoralizing. I decided to take some time away and gear up for the postseason, so here we go.

SEASON REPORT CARD (33-38-1, 46%)

SPREAD BETS (20-25-1, 54%) 

OVER/UNDER BETS (13-13, 50%) 

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

While I normally stick to spread and totals bets, I’m going to be doing some player props this week. The reason is that I wanted to give a pick on every game and there are a few that I just don’t like either side. 

OK, that’s enough preamble. Let’s get to the picks. 

Super Wild Card Weekend NFL Playoff Betting Picks

Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Wednesday afternoon.

Justin Herbert UNDER 230.5 Passing Yards 

For the first game of the weekend, I’m only betting on Herbert’s under on passing yards. To be quite frank, I think both the Chargers and Texans are overrated, and I’m not comfortable betting on either side. I thought about the overall total, but ultimately settled on the Herbert under. 

Why? The Chargers want to run the ball and I expect this game to be fairly close. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman LOVE to run the football, perhaps more than any head coach-offensive coordinator combination in the entire NFL. J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers best running back, returned for the team’s final two regular season games after a one-month injury absence and I expect Los Angeles to lean heavily on the veteran. 

Here’s the other thing: Herbert piled up passing yards against non-playoff teams. The Chargers played 7 games against playoff teams during the regular season and Herbert eclipsed 230 passing yards in just two of those contests. And, guess what? Both times it was the Denver Broncos. 

They are not playing the Broncos this week, so I like Herbert to stay under his total. Also, while I’m not officially giving this pick out, I do like betting on the Chargers moneyline and Herbert’s under passing total as a Same Game Parlay. Why? Sportsbooks see these bets as negatively correlated, so you get a good number. But I think the Chargers could win with Herbert staying under because it would mean they executed their game plan – run the ball and control the clock – correctly. 

Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 over Baltimore Ravens 

I know this strategy backfired twice late in the season on me, but I’m pretty much always going to back Mike Tomlin as an underdog, especially against the Ravens. Baltimore beat the Steelers and covered as favorites back in Week 16, the first time they covered as favorites against the Steelers since 2014. 

I don’t think they can do it twice in a row after going a decade without doing so. In addition, that game was a bit fluky. The Steelers fumbled inside the Ravens’ five-yard line and Baltimore had a pick-6. Plus, the Ravens fumbled three times and recovered all of them. That’s pretty insane luck. 

These teams generally play games that are close, and I expect that here. Plus, both teams want to run the ball, which should keep the clock moving. Lamar Jackson’s postseason struggles are well-documented, and I just don’t think he and the Ravens will run the Steelers out of the building. I’m not counting the Steelers out as far as winning the game outright, either. 

Buffalo Bills -8.5 over Denver Broncos 

I’m going to keep the analysis here fairly short: I believe the Denver Broncos are wildly overrated and the Bills are going to run them out of the building. Bo Nix is starting his first NFL playoff game, and it’s on the road in one of the toughest environments in the NFL. Sean Payton hasn’t coached a playoff game since 2020 and he is also wildly overrated as a head coach. 

The truth is that the Broncos haven’t beaten anyone this year. Their best win came back in September against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since then, they have only beaten one playoff team and that was last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, who literally played all of their backups. Eight of the Bills’ 13 wins this season have come by at least 9 points and I think that continues on Sunday. 

Green Bay Packers +4.5 over Philadelphia Eagles 

Look, I really do like the Eagles and I think they are a good team. But what matters most, especially during the playoffs? Head coaching, quarterback play and defense. While the Eagles have a slightly better defense, I think the Packers have big advantages at both quarterback and head coach. Hell, the Eagles are 14-3 and Philadelphia fans want Nick Sirianni fired. 

The truth is that Jalen Hurts had an excellent season, but he’s not very good. He processes the field far too slowly to be an elite NFL quarterback, and he doesn’t have the arm talent to make up for bad decision-making. Jordan Love is far better at reading the field and that’s going to show on Sunday. 

Honestly, if Hurts fails to clear concussion protocol and Kenny Pickett starts, I’d be inclined to bet the Eagles if they end up as underdogs. My plan is to lock this bet in and, if Hurts doesn’t play and this line shifts to Green Bay as favorites, bet the other side and go for the middle – and also protect my Packers bet. 

Jayden Daniels OVER 48.5 rushing yards, OVER 8.5 rush attempts & OVER 14.5 longest rush 

Yes, I am TRIPLING down on Daniels’ rushing props. He entered the NFL and ran A LOT to start his career. Daniels had 10+ rush attempts in each of his first three games and in four of the first five. Then, it feels like the Washington coaching staff spoke to him about protecting himself; it’s a long season, after all. 

After Week 5, Daniels didn’t have 10+ rush attempts in eight straight games. In fact, he averaged just six rush attempts during that stretch. But, at the end of the season, when Washington needed to win to get into the playoffs, Daniels started running again. He had 10+ attempts in two of the team’s final three games that mattered (removing the Week 18 game against Dallas that was meaningless) and he had nine in the one game that he didn’t reach 10. 

The point is that protecting Daniels is now out the window. It’s postseason time, which means teams do whatever they can to win. Daniels is the team’s best runner. When the season was on the line against the Falcons, the rookie quarterback rushed 16 times for 127 yards. He averaged 11 rush attempts from Week 14-17, and he had at least one 15+ yard run in five of the team’s final six games. 

I expect Daniels to run the ball quite a bit against Tampa Bay and enough to hit all three of his main rushing props. For what it’s worth, I also like Daniels to lead all players in rushing yards in this game (+400) and Daniels to score a rushing TD (+200). 

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) over Minnesota Vikings 

I just don’t buy the Minnesota Vikings. I can’t. Sam Darnold is making his first career NFL playoff start in his seventh season. Matthew Stafford is a Super Bowl champion. 

I do like Kevin O’Connell and think he’s one of the rising coaches in the league. But he learned from Sean McVay, who is still the better head coach. Yes, the Vikings’ defense is stronger than the Rams. But I like getting two of the three main factors and there’s a huge gap between these starting quarterbacks. 

The Rams defeated the Vikings this season, and they have the rest edge. While Minnesota played on Sunday Night Football in a crucial showdown against the Lions, the Rams rested their players in Week 18. 

Add it all up, and the Rams should advance to the Divisional Round.