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During his re-election campaign, President-elect Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end wars in the world rather than ignite new ones. The current conflicts in the Middle East involve too many parties and are much more complicated than the situation in Ukraine. Hence, if Trump wants to deliver on his promises, he should focus first on Ukraine.  

Russia and Sanctions

Nearly three years have passed since the war in Ukraine started, and there is no end in sight. The policy adopted by the Biden administration in response to the Russian invasion involved strict economic sanctions against Russia along with a massive and ongoing supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

This policy has failed. Russia found ways to bypass the sanctions through deals with China, India, and other countries. Russian President Putin remains undeterred by the heavy casualties it suffered on the battlefield and seems determined to continue on this course for years. 

Russia has also continued its military involvement elsewhere – notably in Westen and Sub-Saharan Africa, where its Wagner Force has gradually gained ground and replaced French Forces deployed there for years. This move seems partially coordinated with the Chinese, who have dramatically increased their foothold in Africa in recent years by buying various assets such as mines, ports, etc., and taking over many infrastructure projects.  

The fallback route for Trump is to continue imposing sanctions and providing Ukraine with armaments as before. This continuation is not likely to push the Russians back. In fact, we should all be worried about a scenario in which Russia is on the verge of defeat as it may very well drive the Kremlin to use its immense nuclear arsenal, and that will almost surely lead to WWIII.   

Weapons Stoppage

Incoming President Trump also promised to stop the flow of armaments to Ukraine during his campaign. There are at least two incentives for him to do just that. First, it will show his voters that he cares about their tax money and doesn’t spend it on useless purposes as he claimed his predecessor was doing. Second, it may serve his drive to force the European NATO allies to increase their spending on defense and stop relying on the USA to carry most of the budgetary burden of this organization. 

Consider a scenario where Trump offers Putin a deal that will let the latter hold the Crimean Peninsula, which was part of Russia for centuries until 1956, and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, where most of the population are ethnic Russians, in return for a reversal of Russia’s relations with China, North Korea, and Iran. If Putin agrees, the deal will constitute a significant setback to China’s intentions to take over Taiwan, extend its reach through Asia and the Middle East by implementing its “Belt & Road Program,” and control an ever-growing portion of Africa’s natural resources. It will also help the world contain the rough regime in Pyongyang, hoping that an internal revolt will eventually topple it and facilitate a reunion of the two Koreas. Finally, it will deliver a heavy blow to Iran’s intentions to become a regional power in the Middle East. It may pave the road towards eliminating Iran’s nuclear aspirations, either through negotiations or by force.  

Ending the war in Ukraine and lifting the sanctions will open numerous opportunities for American and European companies to do business in Russia. It will enable the return of cheap Russian gas to Europe and will bring many more economic benefits to all parties involved. Trump will have no difficulty convincing his supporters that a move that focuses America’s attention on its most significant global rival, China, is better than spreading it across multiple rivals. He may even gain respect and credibility from people who oppose him for taking a bold move that will have far-reaching strategic benefits for the US and its Western allies. 

Would Ukraine Agree? 

Ukrainians will surely object to such a deal but may be convinced to reluctantly accept it through a carrot-and-stick approach. The carrot could be a generous Marshall Plan-style economic program that will bring rapid recovery from the damages of the war and a clear path toward growth and prosperity. The stick might be stopping all military aid and letting the Russians continue their thrust in Southern Ukraine. In particular, the Russians may then decide to take over the 130km coastline from Mykolaiv – which they already occupied in March 2022 and are now threatening from the East– to the port city of Odesa. Losing its access to the Black Sea will be a knock-out punch to the Ukrainian economy, which will be felt for many years.

ATACMS firing back in 2006. Image Credit: U.S. Army.

Is it a fair and just solution to the conflict? Absolutely not. Tearing up parts of Ukraine and handing them over to Russia would violate some of the basic rules of international law. Furthermore, it may motivate similar moves by other aggressive forces elsewhere. But it won’t be the first time that such an outcome has been recorded in the history of humankind, nor will it be the last one. Sometimes, it may be better to be smart rather than just.    

About the Author: Boaz Golany 

Lt. Colonel (res.) Boaz Golany is an Emeritus Professor at the Technion, Israel Institute of Technology where he has served as a Dean, VP for External Relations & Resource Development and Executive VP & Director General. His research interests cover diverse areas of applied operations research. He also serves as a member of the Board and as a strategic consultant to some companies and organizations.