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Three special elections occurring Tuesday night in Virginia are expected to give Americans their first sense of how the 2025 gubernatorial elections and 2026 midterms might turn out.

In one race, Virginia Del. Kannan Srinivasan, a Democrat, is facing off against Tumay Harding, a Republican, for a Virginia Senate seat previously held by now-Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, a Democrat.

In another race, JJ Singh, a Democrat, is facing off against Ram Venkatachalam, a Republican, for Srinivasan’s former Virginia House of Delegates seat.

And finally, Luther Cifers, a Republican, is facing off against Jack Trammell, a Democrat, for the former Virginia Senate seat of now-Rep. John McGuire, a Republican.

So to recap, up for grabs are:

  • A Virginia 32nd Senate seat previously held by a Democrat
  • A Virginia 26th House seat previously held by a Democrat
  • A Virginia 10th Senate seat previously held by a Republican.

According to The Hill, Democrats are expected to retain their House seat and Senate seat, while Republicans are expected to retain their Senate seat.

Here’s where things get interesting.

“Democrats hold small majorities in both of Virginia’s legislative chambers,” The Hill notes. “In the likely scenario that Republicans keep the 10th Senate district seat, a loss in either or both of the Loudoun County-area seats could throw the party’s grip on power in Richmond into jeopardy.”

So the key races to watch are the 32nd Senate rate and 26th House race. And indeed, the races are so important that last month the Democrat Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Srinivasan and Singh — the Democrat candidates running for the positions — to its “spotlight” program.

The “spotlight” program “allows the committee to support the two candidates with fundraising and organizing,” according to The Hill.

“On January 7th, 2025, Spotlight candidates JJ Singh (HD-26) and Del. Kannan Srinivasan (SD-32) will compete in must-win races to defend Democrats’ one-seat majorities in both chambers and check Republican Gov. Youngkin’s power in Virginia,” a DLCC press release reads.

“Securing victories in these special elections will be essential ahead of November when the full House of Delegates is on the ballot. Democratic power in states like Virginia will be the strongest firewall to defend against extremism – particularly as Project 2025 and the MAGA agenda will likely send more powers to the states,” it continues.

In a statement to The Hill, Democrat National Committee (DNC) deputy executive director Roger Lau also stressed the importance of these elections.

“2025 is a big year in Virginia and it starts with winning these crucial special elections to defend Democratic majorities and ensure the Democratic-led legislature can stand up to the extremism of Donald Trump and Glenn Youngkin,” he said.

The overall question, according to CNN, is will either party overperform? If so, it could provide a stark indicator of what to expect in future elections.

“The results could either suggest that voters are pushing back on Trump’s victory, as Virginia Democrats did in 2017 when they made large statewide gains, or that the wide-ranging coalition the incoming president built is as strong as it was in November,” CNN notes.

Everything could boil down to the margins.

“Margins, of course, will matter a great deal,” Mark Rozell, the dean of the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government, told CNN.

The good news for Republicans is that President-elect Donald Trump won in Loudon County, where Democrats are expected to retain a Senate seat and House seat, with 10,000 more votes than he earned in 2020.

“Republicans are banking on continued voter frustration over the economy trickling down to the state level and have highlighted proposals from Trump, such as ending taxes on tips,” CNN notes.

The Democrats’ messaging meanwhile is all about Trump, Trump, Trump.

“This is the first opportunity after the presidential to send a strong message that Virginia is not going back,” Srinivasan said to CNN.

Vivek Saxena
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