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I don’t have a clear sense of who is winning the Russo-Ukraine War. Perhaps “neither” is the right answer, as appalling losses suggest the exhaustion of both sides but no sign that either will retreat, similar to World War I. There are lots of reasons to estimate that Russia has the upper hand in the long run, though Ukraine can hold off Russia for a long time as long as the U.S. is willing to shovel billions in aid.

But by one metric you can make out an argument that Russia is slowly winning because Ukraine’s population has fallen by a third. Although current projections believe this has stabilized, does anyone have much confidence in that projection?