The Air Force’s NGAD Fighter Dilemma Won’t Be Easy to Solve

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Key Points and Summary: The U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program is set to redefine air superiority with a sixth-generation stealth fighter. Designed to counter China’s growing military capabilities, the NGAD boasts advanced features like extended range, adaptive propulsion, and collaborative unmanned systems.

-However, its $300 million price tag per jet has stalled progress, with efforts underway to reduce costs without compromising performance. With its unparalleled stealth, advanced sensors, and cutting-edge engines, the NGAD aims to ensure U.S. dominance in contested environments.

-As the Trump administration evaluates its future, the stakes for American airpower have never been higher.

The NGAD Sixth Generation Fighter, Costly But Needed?

The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) is a sixth-generation air superiority fighter program of the United States Air Force, aiming to replace the F-22 Raptor eventually.

In 2014, the NGAD fighter program originated from the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) studies for concepts of air superiority systems of the 2030s for the US Air Force and US Navy. However, the Navy broke off and established its own offices and programs.

China is a Threat Today, Not In the Future

The Air Force no longer considers China a future threat but a current one because of the lightning-fast sophistication of its long-range air defense and electronic warfare systems.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said on September 16, 2024, he no longer refers to China as a “future” threat: “China is a threat today.” 

And if a potential war with China occurs within and around the island chains, F-22 Raptors will be constrained by their short (640 nautical miles) range. 

The Raptors rely on Air Force air refueling tankers (KC-135, KC-46) to increase their range.

However, those tankers are easy prey for enemy fighter aircraft and will be targeted by Chinese air defense systems and fighters. The Air Force saw the need for a sixth-generation NGAD fighter system, a “family of systems,” enabling air superiority, with the ability to operate without threat of attack, even in highly contested environments.

The centerpiece of the system is a crewed fighter aircraft. It will be supported by various complementing “manned, unmanned, optionally manned, cyber, electronic” systems, which are likely to be uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) to carry extra munitions and perform other missions.

Much of the world was agog when China unveiled its 6th-generation fighter in November, but many forgot that the US 6th-generation fighter (NGAD) first flew four years ago. Not surprisingly, the Chinese aircraft closely resembled the NGAD concept aircraft, at least some of the various images within the public domain. 

The capabilities of the Chinese stealth jets are still unknown. However, Bryan Clark from the Hudson Institute in Washington told Breaking Defense that the Chinese “appear to be well behind their US counterparts in stealth, sensor fusion, and speed/maneuverability. 

“This is because, while the PRC can steal or emulate the exterior elements of a US design, the mission systems, stealth coatings, and propulsion/control technologies inside are either highly-classified and therefore hard to access or difficult to replicate with indigenous Chinese technology,” Clark said.

He added that the Chinese continue to struggle to build jet engines with high-quality and durable turbines.

“China’s jet engine and avionics industries are immature, which is why COMAC has not been able to field a viable commercial aircraft until recently and even that aircraft is only being purchased by Chinese carriers who don’t have a choice. Many of China’s military and commercial aircraft depend on western propulsion and avionics parts,” Clark said.

What Will It Take To Field an NGAD Fighter?

One of the main characteristics of the NGAD has to be a much longer range, as mandated by the long stretches of the Indo-Pacific. So, fuel tanks must have more capacity, and the engines must be more economical. The design teams are considering reducing the airframe’s infrared signature by reducing exhaust temperatures. 

NGAD will be powered by advanced engines developed through the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program. Pratt and Whitney, Boeing, General Electric, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman were all awarded a ten-year, $975 million contract for their respective NGAP designs in August 2022.

Pratt and Whitney has a prototype engine, the XA103. According to the company, it will deliver the advanced survival NGAD fighter requirements to survive in a shooting war with our potential enemies—China and Russia. The XA103 engines will generate significantly more electrical output than current propulsion systems to power directed energy or laser weapons.

Stealth is the one area where the US is far and away ahead of the rest of the world. The F-22 is already the stealthiest production plane in the world. The NGAD will be even better due to its tailless design, new stealth coatings, and other advanced materials and technologies.

The sensor suite will incorporate all the information the aircraft collects and then correlate and de-conflicts it together to give the pilots a “God’s Eye” view of the battlefield. It will prove invaluable as to where to identify and engage targets, avoid threats, and aid in directing lesser aircraft as an airborne air controller and unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs).

The Bad News… The Cost

The NGAD is, as of right now, going to cost $300 million per plane. Because of this, the Air Force has paused the project. The Air Force wants the cost of the NGAD to be on par with the F-35, which is currently $85 million each. But it won’t be an easy fix with the cost three times that. 

The Air Force is working with the design teams to cut costs without sacrificing what makes this aircraft tick. However, there is optimism that the aircraft will be built. 

Now it is up to the incoming Trump administration to decide how to proceed with the NGAD. 

About the Author

Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in other military publications.