Examining Future Market For Super Bowl Bets

NFL Future Market

The word value gets thrown around quite a bit in the sports betting sector. I’m not always sure that people understand what it means or can mean. For example, you’ll hear about closing line value, but that’s only important if it wins. If it loses, the value is completely lost. For future betting purposes, and any bet, you want the best possible number and line value. However, with future betting, you can translate that into situations where you’re ensuring that you’ll get a profit. I’ll go over the NFL playoff teams and who I think it makes sense to bet on to win the Super Bowl. 

True Contenders:

Lions +300; Chiefs +350; Ravens +600; Bills +600; Eagles +700.

Did I just list the top five favorites and also refer to them as “true contenders”? Yep. I would be pretty shocked if the Super Bowl is played without this combination of teams. The AFC is a three horse race and the expectation has to be that the Chiefs, Bills, or Ravens make the championship. In the NFC, there are some others that I can see sneaking it, but really it should be the Lions or Eagles. At this point, the only value for the Chiefs or Lions is to place a bet now, and bet on their opponent to win the Super Bowl when the matchup is actually set. If they ended up playing each other, then you’re going to win 2u no matter what. I think the Bills have everything you need to win the Super Bowl and feel like there is still value. I also like the Eagles – they’ve been to the Super Bowl, have a solid offense, good defense, but they do have a tough road ahead, starting with facing the very talented Packers team. 

Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Houston Texans during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

True Value Bets:

Packers +1600; Rams +3500

The NFC is the side of the bracket that I wouldn’t call wide open, but I do think there is more wiggle room for someone to sneak past. The Lions are banged up, but do keep winning. The Eagles are certainly beatable. The Packers aren’t necessarily my choice to win against the Eagles in Philadelphia, but I feel like their odds should be closer to 11:1 or even 10:1. This would be a true value bet, you think the market is priced incorrectly and play it as a result. The Rams are a team that are sneaky good. They have arguably the best quarterback in the NFC on their side, and also one of the best coaches. Their defense isn’t perfect, but they can win shootouts if needed. They can also grind out games as you saw when they beat the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. 

Don’t Waste Your Money:

Texans, Steelers, Broncos, Commanders, Chargers

There is one missing team from this mix, but there is no point in betting on these teams if you ask me. The Steelers and Broncos should lose their first game. Even if they win, do you really see them advancing to the Super Bowl? The Commanders were a good story, but I don’t think they are talented enough to win the Super Bowl yet. They might put up a good fight, but they will be underdogs in every game so you could just bet them to win individual games instead. The Chargers could, and should, beat the Texans. If the Chargers win, they have at least a puncher’s chance of advancing with their defense, coach, and quarterback all being people I can support in a game, but again, I think the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens are all significantly further ahead than the Chargers. 

The Vikings are the only team I don’t have a category for. I couldn’t bash you for playing them. I actually kind of like them. However something always goes wrong for them and this is going to be a fight each week. They were just embarrassed by the Lions in a pretty significant game so I won’t bet on them. 

If you take a value pick from this, I think the Packers and Rams are the best choices and I’ll bet on the Rams. Additionally, I think the Bills to win at +600 is still worth it. If they are the favorite in their games (and they should be outside of @ Kansas City) you can bet on their opponent and hedge a bit each game.