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Key Points and Summary: Canada’s military is facing a crisis, with recruitment and retention at record lows and the armed forces operating far below capacity.

-Spending just half the NATO defense benchmark of 2% GDP, Canada’s underfunded military is struggling to maintain readiness. The Canadian Armed Forces, short 16,000 personnel, face challenges in deploying new equipment like F-35s and drones due to low staffing.

-Analysts warn of a “death spiral” unless reforms are made. With geopolitical tensions rising, especially in the Arctic, Canada must prioritize military investment and strategic cultural shifts to remain a viable NATO ally and address its defense challenges.

What Happened to Canada’s Military?

When I was in U.S. Army Basic Combat Training in 1999 at Fort Knox, Kentucky, we had several military observers from Canada watching our activities. 

They seemed excited but also perplexed. One day, a group asked us if we got beer breaks during training. They said they hadn’t seen any beer sign and wondered if we were satisfied. 

We weren’t sure if this was a joke, but the Canadians were dead serious.

This always made me doubt that they had a legitimate fighting force.

Not a Winning Formula

Flash forward to 2025, and the Canadian military is having trouble. Recruiting and retention are down. The prime minister just resigned

The economy is struggling, and the cost of living has skyrocketed. These problems have resulted in political leadership ignoring the state of the Canadian armed forces.

Defense Spending Is Not Sufficient

One way to look at how a country emphasizes defense is the level it spends on the military. This is especially true for NATO, of which Canada is a member.

 The standard for the alliance is two percent of GDP earmarked for defense each year. Canada currently spends about half of that, which is sad for such a large country blessed with natural resources and a modern economy.

A Lord Strathcona’s Horse (Royal Canadian’s) Leopard tank fires at the top of a hill during a live fire demonstration held in Wainwright, AB.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised that by 2032, Canada would meet the 2 percent of GDP standard. Seven years before meeting the 2 percent level is not satisfactory for the country. And now incoming President Donald Trump wants NATO members to spend five percent of their GDP on defense expenditures. Canada will never get there.

The Canadian Military Is in a ‘Death Spiral’

This situation has some of Canada’s civilian-military leadership spouting doomsday scenarios. “Canada’s military is in a death spiral,” said Minister of National Defense Bill Blair at a conference in March 2024.

The Canadian Armed Forces only has 71,500 active personnel and 30,000 reservists. That sounds woefully small, and now Blair said the military is short 16,000 people.

Canadian military analysts and professors Philippe Lagassé and Justin Massie wrote in an article for War on the Rocks last year, “while the Canadian government has signed several high-profile contracts for new equipment such as F-35s, Predator drones, and P-8A Poseidons, at this rate, there may not be anybody to use these capabilities when they come online.”

Not Ready to Fight

The authors also admit that the current Canadian Air Force airplane availability is only 45 percent, with the Army operating at 54 percent capacity and the Navy at 46 percent of its full capability.

This is unacceptable. Canada has the world’s ninth-largest economy and the twelfth-largest GDP per capita. There should be a more significant emphasis on defense. Much of the problem is Canada’s geopolitical outlook on military and foreign affairs. Canada lives in a friendly neighborhood, and its borders are more secure than America’s. There is the problem of the Arctic, but the Great White North is not that interested in being a global or even regional leader in defense.

Canadian and British forces work together during a defensive battle simulation at first light on May 15, 2023, during Ex MAPLE RESOLVE in Wainwright, AB. Anti-tank weapons played a key role in the battle.

Canadian and British forces work together during a defensive battle simulation at first light on May 15, 2023, during Ex MAPLE RESOLVE in Wainwright, AB. Anti-tank weapons played a key role in the battle.

While the Canadian government plans to spend $72 billion in new funding over the next 20 years, the current situation is untenable. The Canadian military has problems now with less money available for recruiting, retention, readiness, and training.

What Led to This Predicament?

Canada made significant contributions during World War II, but since the late 1940s and 1950s, the military has received less and less investment from the government. When the Cold War ended, government leaders believed a peace dividend was on hand. That meant cuts to the military budgets and a reduction in force levels.

Canada reduced its troop level by 33 percent from 1990 to 2005. In 1995, the country cut its defense budget by 30 percent.

This improved after 9/11, and the spending received a bump when its military participated in the war in Afghanistan with a deployment there, and the government sent troops to Iraq.

In fact, a Canadian sniper made the longest kill shot in history in 2017 in Iraq, which has since been eclipsed, but still, a historic moment. This was a highlight, but there are not enough of these actions to instill a significant amount of confidence in Canada’s commitment to military excellence.

Canada must make a change to its strategic culture to repair its military. If it wants to remain a member of NATO, it must spend more on its defense. Recruiting and retention must improve. It should recognize that Russia has designs on the Arctic, which should be the impetus for spending more on military exercises with additional joint drills and a renewed commitment to combined arms warfare. 

The Army, Navy, and Air Force are at a crossroads, and it will take a better sense of military urgency among the populace and defense leadership to fix these problems.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.