The Party Line: How Do (and Will) Trump's Nominees' Confirmation

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We’re just two weeks away from the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump — for the second time. The 119th Congress has been sworn in and Senate confirmation hearings are set to begin January 14, with Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.

Trump’s nominees have already faced a significant amount of scrutiny (#BecauseTrump), so I thought it might be interesting to compare how President Joe Biden’s Cabinet nominees were treated by the Senate (then-controlled by his own party 50-48, plus two Independents who largely caucused with the Democrats) to how Trump’s were (and ultimately, will be).

The first thing to note is that all but two of Biden’s nominees were confirmed. Neera Tanden’s nomination for Director of the Office of Management and Budget was withdrawn on March 2, 2021, after significant opposition was raised during the confirmation process. And Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su’s nomination to the role has largely stalled out, though not for lack of trying.

Of those confirmed, the only ones that went straight party-line were Xavier Becerra as Secretary of Health and Human Services (confirmed March 18, 2021, 50-49), Jared Bernstein as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (confirmed June 13, 2023, 50-49). Deb Haaland narrowly made the cut (51-40) as Secretary of the Interior on March 15, 2021, but that included four Republican “yes” votes, making up for three Democrat abstentions.

It bears noting, however, that none of Biden’s nominees received Democrat “no” votes.

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Alright, so how did the votes go down for Trump’s nominees in his first term? That was, of course, the 115th Congress, and Republicans held a 52-48 majority to start. One nominee (Andy Puzder for Secretary of Labor) was withdrawn once it became clear he did not have sufficient Republican support. Another, John Ratcliffe, for Director of National Intelligence, was initially withdrawn after his 2019 nomination to replace Dan Coats but then resubmitted in February 2020 and ultimately squeaked by 49-44 in May of 2020.

Mick Mulvaney just managed to make the cut as Director of the Office of Management and Budget 51-49, with John McCain (R) joining ranks with the Democrats to vote against him. In fact, six Republicans voted against at least one Trump nominee, with Susan Collins (ME), Rand Paul (KY), and McCain (AZ) each opposing two, and Lisa Murkowski (AK), Ben Sasse (NE), and Cory Gardner (CO) each opposing one.

Ultimately, while there were multiple instances of Democrats voting “yes” on Trump’s picks, there were also several instances of Republicans voting “no.” Unlike the Democrats of 2021, the Republicans of 2017 were willing to buck their party leader/president.

It’s eight years later — and in some ways, a whole different world. One suspects there will be fewer instances of Republicans voting against Trump’s nominees this time around. Will Democrats follow suit? Or prove even more resistant to the Trump picks this time around? My instinct is that we’ll see more party-line (or close to it) votes. The saving grace for Trump (and his nominees) is that the Republicans have a 53-47 advantage this time. And John Fetterman (D-PA) has signaled an inclination to step into the role of the recently retired Joe Manchin (I-WV), so may provide an added cushion.