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South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is employing extra-constitutional street pressure to impede the impeachment inquiry against him. He has encouraged his supporters to surround his residence and physically prevent the service of an arrest warrant by a duly constituted court. This is a remarkable rejection of the rule of law.

This is likely the end of Yoon’s career. Even if he is miraculously found innocent by South Korea’s highest court – which must verify the impeachment motion passed against him by the South Korean legislature – he cannot govern in any meaningful way.

In choosing to go outside the political process and embrace an open power struggle, he has rendered himself unfit to govern a rule-of-law society. Should he return to office, the street protests against his government – South Korea has a robust street protest culture – would be relentless.

The opposition will refuse to work with him – and a substantial chunk of his own party likely will too. The country would be adrift until the next presidential election in 2027 if Yoon did not resign.

Yoon’s Intransigence Makes His Impeachment More Likely

The current turmoil began when Yoon briefly declared martial law on December 3. Totally unexpected, this was a huge shock to the country.

The public and opposition mobilized against it quickly and dramatically. Yoon was quickly forced to pull back, and eleven days later, the National Assembly – the South Korean legislature – voted to impeach him.

Since then, Yoon has been obstructed as much as possible. He has rejected cooperation with the investigation into his actions. This week, he encouraged his supporters to rally in the streets at his residence to inhibit the investigation. 

This stand-off is a sign of desperation. Yoon’s approval rating before the martial law declaration was under 20%. He was deeply unpopular, which made it hard for him to govern with the opposition-dominated parliament. His martial law declaration only worsened his approval rating. Street demonstrations against him began the day after the martial law declaration. In the face of such massive disapproval, his return to the presidency would face widespread rejection. He could not meaningfully govern.

Perhaps that is why he is rejecting institutionalism for a stand-off. He has nothing to lose. But calling for extra-constitutional action makes it more likely that the high court will confirm his impeachment, remove him, and send him to prison. This is likely why the investigators backed off their attempt to arrest Yoon. They know he will likely be imprisoned in the end.

Polarization and the Embrace of Trumpism 

Yoon’s looming imprisonment will not resolve the long-term South Korean domestic problem – intense partisan polarization – which led to the current turmoil. The South Korean left and right have always been far apart on foreign policy issues. For example, Yoon’s martial law declaration accused the South Korean left of conspiring with North Korea. Yoon’s leftist predecessor reached out to the North with such alacrity that he provoked widespread anxiety that he was undermining South Korean sovereignty.

That polarization now appears to be seeping into South Korean domestic politics. The South Korean left waged a relentless, unjustified campaign of obstruction and investigation against Yoon’s government, making it absurdly tricky for Yoon to govern. This is what led, in turn, to Yoon’s wild overreaction to martial law. Yoon violated South Korea’s institutions more egregiously than the left – by seeking to suspend constitutional government – but his grievances against the South Korean left were legitimate.

A Page from Donald Trump for South Korea? 

Navigating an exit from this worsening polarization is the major domestic political challenge for South Korea in the coming decades. Unfortunately, Yoon’s martial law declaration worsened the problem, as the South Korean right now appears to be learning from former US President Donald Trump’s effort to undermine US institutions.

Yoon Seok-Yeol. Image Credit: ROK Government.

The most obvious recent analogue for Yoon’s martial law declaration is the Trump-inspired insurrection of January 6, 2021 to block the transfer of presidential power. Both were grossly inappropriate moves at the edges of legality and risked constitutional breakdown in order to retain power. Yoon, like Trump, had a record of authoritarian leanings in office. And Yoon’s supporters, like Trump’s, have claimed that South Korea’s most recent elections were stolen; they wave US flags along with ‘stop the steal’ signs at pro-Yoon demonstrations. 

Just as Trump’s disdain for the US rule of law has worsened American polarization, so will Yoon’s move to South Korea. The South Korean left will be even more relentless in seeking Yoon’s removal. And if the Constitutional Court does remove him later this year – but he does not leave – the possibility of violence is real, just as fears of violence in last year’s US election were real if Trump had lost. Following America’s path of polarization and right-wing authoritarian drift is a huge risk for South Korea.

About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly 

Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) is a professor of Political Science at Pusan National University. Kelly is a longstanding Contributing Editor to 19FortyFive.