Take It To The Bank: Kentucky Will Be A Final Four Team

If there’s a college basketball team that you want to bet a Final Four pick on for your bracket right now, it’s the Kentucky Wildcats.

Yes, I’m talking about those Wildcats that lost to the Oakland Grizzlies and Jack Gohlke in the first round of last year’s tournament as a three seed. But this is a new year, and this team looks different. In the team’s first year without John Calipari at the head since the 2009-10 season, this team looks poised to make a deep run in the tournament. 

Good Luck Trying To Stop Kentucky’s Offense

In his first season at the Helm in Lexington, Mark Pope has his alma mater humming on offense, as evidenced by a 106-100 win over undefeated Florida on Saturday. That should come as no surprise, given that his BYU Cougars were consistently an offensive force when he coached the Cougars. Unlike at BYU, however, his approach is not as three-point heavy. 

While the Wildcats shoot 25 threes per game, it’s only 29 percent of the shots they’ve taken per game all season. The rest of the shots are from inside the arc, and they create those looks by setting effective ball screens and cutting to the hoop. Being dangerous in transition certainly helps that cause as well.

Through 14 games, they are averaging a whopping 89 points per game, third-best in the country. Four of their five starters are the leading scorers on the team. Guard Koby Brea is their highest-scoring bench scorer (11.9 per game), while most of the other starters don’t chip in more than five a game.

The lack of bench depth could be problematic, but if the starters are constantly tearing up opposing defenses, that makes up for a lot. Trying to stop Kentucky from dropping 90 on you in any given night is a nightmare.

The Wildcats’ Defense Isn’t Nearly As Good As Their Offense

Normally, when I assess a team’s chances of making it far in March, I look at their defense. Frankly, Kentucky leaves a lot to be desired. 

While the Wildcats score a lot, they also give up a lot – 71.3 per game to be exact. That’s a lot at the college level, and it has them sitting at 186th in the country. 

I would usually blush at this and say that a team cannot afford to rely on outscoring their opponents all year long, because that puts a lot of pressure on the offense. And if they have an off night, that could spell trouble. Both of Kentucky’s losses so far have come when they failed to score 70 points. 

Kentucky Has The Tools To Overcome Their Iffy Defense

However, I believe this team will be an exception to the rule. All the starters are playing phenomenally in Pope’s system, and despite their lackluster points allowed per game, they are still beating teams by 18 points – and they have already played some high-profile teams (Gonzaga, Duke, Florida). Plus, if we look back just one year, the Alabama Crimson Tide was 358th out of 363 teams in total points allowed per game last season, and they reached the Final Four. Sometimes, outsourcing teams works, and Kentucky has the pieces to do it.

Jan 4, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Florida Gators center Rueben Chinyelu (9) and Kentucky Wildcats center Amari Williams (22) reach for a rebound during the second half at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

If Kentucky can play this way heading into the tournament, there will be few teams that can stop them. If they don’t make it to the Final Four in San Antonio, I’ll be stunned.