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There is only one game that’s “must-see TV” in NFL Week 18: The Minnesota Vikings (14-2) at the Detroit Lions (14-2) on Sunday Night Football. It’s a winner-take-all game for the NFC North and 1-seed in the NFC playoffs. The Lions beat the Vikings in Minnesota 31-29 in their season’s first meeting in Week 7. 

Detroit is -2.5 in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest, but as of Saturday morning, -3’s are available at several sportsbooks. If both teams were at full strength, the Lions should be -3 favorites at home Sunday. That said, given the injuries to Detroit’s defense and Minnesota’s relative health, this game should be a “pick ’em.” 

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The Lions have been without stud pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson since Week 6, who still leads the team in sacks (7.5). But, they are missing four defensive starters who played vs. the Vikings earlier this year, including DT Alim McNeill, LBs Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez, and CB Carlton Davis. These aren’t “depth pieces,” they are impact players and starters. 

Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones runs for a 34-yard touchdown vs. the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium in NFL Week 7. (Photo Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images)

Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones runs for a 34-yard touchdown vs. the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium in NFL Week 7. (Photo Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images)

McNeill is the 10th-best interior defensive lineman out of 125 qualifiers, according to Pro Football Focus, Anzalone is 35th and Rodriguez is 16th out of 85 linebackers, and Davis is 14th out of 117 cornerbacks. Due to mounting injuries, Detroit’s defense has allowed at least 6.5 yards per play in four straight games and 31+ points in three of the last four. 

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Granted, the three teams that scored 31+ points against the Lions were the Green Bay Packers (a 34-31 win in Week 14), the Buffalo Bills (a 48-42 loss in Week 15), and the San Francisco 49ers (a 40-34 win on Monday Night Football earlier this week). However, Minnesota’s offense can drop 30 on anyone because QB Sam Darnold is ballin’.

Speaking of which, I have to eat crow on that. I foolishly predicted the Vikings would finish last in the NFC North this season and gave out Darnold Under 3,475.5 passing yards as my best bet for them. Nope. Darnold is having a Pro Bowl year and Minnesota is a legit Super Bowl contender. 

Also, Minnesota is better in the trenches and Detroit’s offensive line is one of its biggest strengths. According to ESPN, the Vikings rank higher than the Lions in all four line-of-scrimmage win rates: Pass protection, run-blocking, pass rush, and run-stopping. So, Detroit can’t bully Minnesota up front like it can with most teams. 

Their defense makes the Vikings the best NFC team entering the playoffs. Minnesota leads the NFL in EPA/play allowed and success rate. Randomly, I’m one of Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ biggest fans. He is a defensive wizard and the Miami Dolphins are dumb for firing Flores as the head coach for Mike McDaniel. I’ll die on that hill. 

All in all, Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell vs. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is a toss-up and the Lions have a slightly better offense. Yet, the Vikings are better on the line of scrimmage and have the best defense in the league. They’ll probably win outright, but I’ll take the points to be safe. 

Prediction: Minnesota 35, Detroit 27 

  • The Vikings +2.5 are my second favorite pick in NFL Week 18 of the Circa Million VI. Minnesota’s +130 moneyline and as a 6-point “teaser” leg works too.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.