Canada’s Air Force Is Slowly Rotting Away

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Key Points and Summary: Canada’s Air Force, or the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF), faces critical challenges, including recruitment and retention crises, aging fleets, procurement delays, and outdated infrastructure. Personnel shortages hinder operational readiness, while outdated CF-18 fighters and aging transport aircraft leave Canada reliant on allies.

-The RCAF struggles to address growing Arctic threats, and its limited Arctic-capable platforms exacerbate sovereignty concerns.

-Procurement inefficiencies and inadequate infrastructure compound these issues, jeopardizing Canada’s defense credibility. Addressing these challenges demands competitive pay, housing improvements, streamlined procurement, and investments in Arctic-capable platforms.

-Without urgent reform and sustained political will, the RCAF risks losing relevance in a contested global environment.

Canada’s Air Force Faces Crisis: Can the RCAF Recover?

The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF), once a symbol of national pride and capability, is now grappling with profound challenges that jeopardize its ability to defend Canada and contribute meaningfully to allied operations. Persistent recruitment and retention shortfalls, aging fleets, procurement dysfunction, and infrastructure deficiencies have left the Air Force struggling to meet its operational commitments in an increasingly contested global environment. Without bold and sustained reform, the RCAF risks losing its relevance as a critical pillar of Canada’s defense.

The RCAF’s recruitment and retention crisis is one of its most urgent challenges. Chronic personnel shortages have left critical roles unfilled, with some estimates suggesting a shortfall of thousands of aircrew and support staff. Fighter squadrons, air transport units, and even search-and-rescue teams are forced to operate understrength, undermining readiness and morale. Many members cite burnout, family strain due to high operational tempo, and inadequate support for relocation as reasons for leaving. Retention issues are particularly acute among pilots, who can find far better pay and working conditions in the private sector.

Housing and infrastructure exacerbate these problems. At major bases such as Cold Lake and Trenton, aircrew and their families struggle with rising rents and inadequate on-base housing. The situation in Cold Lake, a remote location critical to Canada’s NORAD commitments, is especially dire. Housing shortages and poor community support have made it difficult to attract and retain personnel, compounding the strain on already overburdened units.

Recruitment has failed to keep pace with these losses. Younger Canadians often view the military as an unappealing career choice, perceiving it as outdated and poorly aligned with modern aspirations. While other nations, such as the United States and Australia, have adapted their recruitment strategies to emphasize high-tech career paths, adventure, and patriotism, Canada’s messaging is inconsistent and uninspiring. The RCAF’s critical role in defending Canadian sovereignty, from patrolling the Arctic to contributing to NORAD and NATO, is rarely highlighted effectively in recruitment campaigns.

Compounding the personnel crisis is the Air Force’s aging fleet. The CF-18 fighter jets, introduced in the 1980s, remain the backbone of Canada’s air defense, despite being well past their prime. Efforts to replace them with the F-35 have been delayed for years, with initial deliveries not expected until the late 2020s. Until then, Canada must rely on upgraded but aging CF-18s to fulfill its NORAD and NATO commitments, a stopgap solution that leaves gaps in capability. In the event of a high-intensity conflict, these aircraft would be outmatched by adversaries with fifth-generation fighters, advanced drones, and integrated air defense systems.

The transport fleet fares no better. Aging Hercules and Polaris aircraft struggle to meet Canada’s airlift and refueling needs, while newer acquisitions, such as the CC-295 for search and rescue, have faced significant delays and operational setbacks. These shortcomings leave Canada reliant on allies to fill critical gaps, undermining its sovereignty and credibility in coalition operations.

The Arctic, a region of growing strategic importance, highlights the RCAF’s limitations. As climate change accelerates and geopolitical competition in the region intensifies, Canada’s ability to monitor and defend its vast northern territory is increasingly in question. The Air Force’s fleet of CP-140 Aurora maritime patrol aircraft, while capable, is aging and insufficient to cover the immense area. Investments in modern surveillance platforms, long-endurance drones, and Arctic-capable infrastructure have been slow, leaving Canada at risk of ceding ground to competitors like Russia and China.

Underlying these capability gaps is Canada’s notoriously dysfunctional procurement system. Delays, cost overruns, and bureaucratic infighting have plagued major projects, from the F-35 acquisition to the replacement of search-and-rescue aircraft. Unlike allies who have streamlined their procurement processes to adapt to modern threats, Canada’s approach remains slow and inefficient. The result is a patchwork of aging platforms and delayed replacements that struggle to meet operational demands.

Infrastructure deficiencies further erode the RCAF’s readiness. Key bases lack modern facilities to support new aircraft or accommodate expanding missions. Cold Lake, for example, has outdated hangars ill-suited to house advanced fighter jets, while northern airfields critical for Arctic operations remain underdeveloped. These gaps not only hinder readiness but also send a troubling message about Canada’s commitment to defending its sovereignty and fulfilling its international obligations.

The RCAF’s training programs are similarly outdated. Modern air warfare increasingly relies on integrated multi-domain operations involving advanced technologies such as cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, and unmanned systems. Yet the RCAF has struggled to keep pace, with training programs often focused on traditional air-to-air and air-to-ground tactics. While exercises like Maple Flag offer valuable experience, they fall short of preparing personnel for the complexities of contemporary conflict.

Strategically, the RCAF suffers from a lack of focus. Resources are stretched thin across multiple missions, from NORAD air defense to NATO deployments in Europe and humanitarian operations around the globe. While these missions are all important, Canada’s limited resources demand prioritization. A more focused strategy emphasizing Arctic sovereignty and continental defense would better align with Canada’s core security interests.

F-35 Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.

Addressing the RCAF’s challenges requires urgent and comprehensive reform. Recruitment and retention must be top priorities, with competitive pay, improved housing, and family support programs as immediate steps. Modernizing recruitment campaigns to emphasize the Air Force’s cutting-edge roles in technology, defense, and environmental monitoring would help attract the next generation of aircrew and technicians.

Procurement reform is equally critical. Streamlining acquisition processes, leveraging allied expertise, and prioritizing off-the-shelf solutions where possible are essential to delivering new capabilities on time and within budget. Investments in Arctic-capable platforms, drones, and advanced surveillance systems must be accelerated to address the growing threats in Canada’s north.

Infrastructure upgrades are non-negotiable. Modernizing hangars, airfields, and base housing is essential to supporting operations and improving quality of life for personnel. At Cold Lake, in particular, significant investments are needed to ensure the base can sustain high-tempo operations in a strategically vital region.

Above all, political will is essential. The Trudeau government has shown little urgency in addressing the RCAF’s challenges, favoring symbolic gestures over substantive action. A future Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre could bring the focus and commitment necessary to revitalize the Air Force, but success will require sustained investment and prioritization of defense policy.

The stakes are high. A diminished Air Force not only leaves Canada vulnerable but also erodes its credibility with allies. NORAD, NATO, and other partners rely on Canada to contribute meaningfully to collective defense, yet the RCAF’s current state leaves it punching below its weight. As geopolitical competition intensifies in the Arctic and beyond, Canada cannot afford to fall further behind.

F-35 from Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company – Fort Worth

The Royal Canadian Air Force’s legacy is one of excellence, from its heroic contributions in the Battle of Britain to its role in peacekeeping and disaster relief. Restoring its strength and relevance will not be easy, but it is essential. Canada must act now to ensure the RCAF can meet the challenges of the 21st century and continue to protect the nation’s skies and sovereignty.

About the Author: Andrew Latham 

Andrew Latham is a Professor of International Relations and Political Theory; and Special Advisor to the President of Macalester College, Saint Paul, MN. He is also a Non-Resident Fellow, Defense Priorities, Washington, DC; a Senior Washington Fellow with the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy also in Washington, DC; a 2023-25 Education Ambassador with the Council on Foreign Relations; an Opinion Contributor with The Hill in Washington, DC; and an Opinion Contributor with RealClearDefense.