A 5-0 Week 18 Of Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping Contest Is My Destiny

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Week 17 was a perfect encapsulation of how lame my season has been in the Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping Contest. Two of my losses were with underdogs in overtime, the epitome of “bad beats.” Not the New York Jets pick. That was awful and they are a disgrace, and I’m an idiot for betting the Jets against the Buffalo Bills. 

But, the Denver Broncos +3 should have pushed in their overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and all the Atlanta Falcons needed to do to cover +4 was hold the Washington Commanders to a field goal in overtime. Both teams could’ve won the game and covered the spread by going for two after their TDs at the end of regulation. Instead, they chickened out and lost. 

NFL Week 17 Recap: 2-3 

1. Los Angeles Chargers (-4) ✅
2. Minnesota Vikings (-1) ✅
3. Atlanta Falcons (+4) ❌
4. New York Jets (+11) ❌
5. Denver Broncos (+3) ❌

Unfortunately, I’ve been on the losing end of a lot of coin-flips this season. Entering NFL Week 18, I’m 42-43 in the contest and tied for 2,739th out of 5,632 entries. Now, my goals are to finish with a winning record in the regular season and crush the NFL playoffs. Fortunately, I usually crush the final week of the regular season and the wild-card round. 

Circa Million VI NFL Week 18 Card

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

1. Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
2. New England Patriots (+2)
3. Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (+4)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5)

Circa Million VI Pick #1: Vikings (+2.5) at Detroit Lions

I’ve come a long way on Minnesota after predicting it would finish last in the NFC North. Frankly, I just didn’t think Vikings first-year QB Sam Darnold would be this good. He is fifth in QB Rating, fifth in passing TDs, and fourth in passing yards. Between Darnold’s awakening and Minnesota’s defense and coaching, I’ll take the Vikings +2.5 against any team in the NFC. 

(LISTEN to Vikings-Lions analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #2: Buffalo Bills at Patriots (+2) 

Originally, New England was my top pick, but I moved it down after reading that third-string QB Joe Milton was getting first-team reps in practice this week. If Milton starts Sunday, the Patriots are “tanking,” and I’ll disavow this pick. Yet, since I have already written and podcasted that New England is the “Lock Of NFL Week 18,” I’ll stick with my analysis. 

(LISTEN to Bills-Patriots analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #3: San Francisco 49ers at Cardinals (-4.5)

(LISTEN to 49ers-Cardinals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #4: Chargers at Raiders (+4)

If the Steelers beat the Bengals Saturday, Pittsburgh clinches the 5-seed in the AFC playoffs, locking the Chargers into the 6-seed, and they’ll have nothing to play for Sunday. It would be insane for Jim Harbaugh to play his starters for the full game if Cincy wins. However, if the Bengals lose, the Raiders will close as favorites. 

Regardless, Las Vegas can still cover +4 vs. LAC’s first-stringers because its defense is surprisingly pretty good. The Raiders are eighth in defensive success rate, sixth in early-down EPA/play, and they play hard for head coach Antonio Pierce. Vegas held the Chargers to 11 first downs and five 3-and-outs in Week 1. 

The Raiders are 24th in points per game allowed on defense because their offense puts them in a bad position with turnovers. But, that’s mostly with QBs Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder running the offense. Las Vegas’s Week 18 starter, QB Aidan O’Connell, is eighth in sack rate and sixth in interception rate. 

O’Connell is 10-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in his 15 full games as a starter, including 3-2 ATS this season, because he isn’t mistake-prone. The Chargers are 11-4-1 ATS mostly because they are +11 in turnover margin and let teams beat themselves. As long as O’Connell doesn’t turn the ball over, LAC won’t cover the spread. With or without their starters. 

(LISTEN to Chargers-Raiders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #5: New Orleans Saints at Buccaneers (-13.5)

Tampa Bay is the last team on my card because it’s usually stupid to bet on double-digit favorites in the NFL. Nevertheless, it’s Week 18, so the options are sparse, and New Orleans has looked awful in the past two games, losing 34-0 to the Packers in Week 16 and 25-10 to the Raiders last week. 

The Buccaneers beat the Saints 52-27 in Week 6 and that game was more lopsided than the final score indicates. Tampa beat NOLA 8.2-4.6 in yards per play and the Bucs converted 12 more first downs (31-19). Saints rookie QB Spencer Rattler started for an injured Derek Carr in that game, which is the case again this week. 

Furthermore, the Buccaneers have the stats of a top-five team. Seven of their nine wins have been by at least 15 points. Tampa has two 17-point wins over the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, both of whom are going to the playoffs. The Bucs hammered the Chargers 40-17 on the road three weeks ago. 

Lastly, Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is putting on a clinic this season and Tampa Bay’s offense has been rolling since its Week 11 bye. The Bucs are fourth in EPA/play and second in success rate over that span and have 410+ total yards in all six games.  

(LISTEN to Saints-Buccaneers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.