The Air Force’s F-22 Raptor Nightmare Has Just Arrived

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Key Points and Summary: The U.S. Air Force faces a critical decision: fund the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program or modernize aging F-22 Raptors. Retiring 32 older F-22s, used for training, could save $1.8 billion over four years to reallocate toward NGAD development.

-NGAD promises unmatched stealth, AI-driven situational awareness, and drone coordination capabilities.

-However, modernization advocates argue updating these F-22s would be more cost-effective. The Trump administration’s new defense leadership must resolve this dilemma, with broader implications for America’s air dominance amid rising threats from China and Russia.

-Clarity and strategic prioritization are essential to secure the Air Force’s future capabilities.

Retire Old F-22 Raptors to Fund NGAD Fighter: A Bold Air Force Dilemma

The U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter may cost as much as $300 million each, and there are questions about how the new warbird will be designed. 

So, the Pentagon is taking a wait-and-see approach to let the new Trump administration decide whether the program should proceed or be canceled. 

One idea in Air Force circles to fund NGAD would be to retire older F-22 Raptors and use the savings to give the NGAD a lifeline.

This is not a bad idea. Some F-22s are used in training, and others are otherwise not on active-duty status. 

These airplanes could be sent to the Boneyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona. 

The savings from flying and maintaining these planes could be re-programmed for the NGAD project.

The F-22 Raptor Nightmare, Explained 

The Air Force must make a tough decision, a true F-22 Ratpor nightmare. 

Thirty-two aging Raptors need a $3.5 billion modernization program to make these airplanes competitive for the next several decades. 

This batch of stealth fighters is not up to standard. Choosing to cancel the update project would save $1.8 billion over four years. This money could be plowed into the NGAD program.

What’s Great About the NGAD?

The NGAD has much potential. 

The airplane will be stealthier than the F-22 – a fighter already the best radar-evading fighter in the world. 

It will offer artificial intelligence to make for a “smarter” cockpit and one that gives the pilot an inordinate amount of situational awareness.

The NGAD would also operate a tethered drone or flight of drones in an arrangement called the “Loyal Wingman.” 

The unmanned craft could fly ahead of the NGAD to collect intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data, perform target acquisition, and conduct electronic warfare. 

NGAD could also be outfitted with nuclear-tipped hypersonic weapons. 

Moreover, other countries such as China and Russia have their version of a sixth-generation fighter, so the Air Force would need one of its own to keep up. 

Plus, the U.S. Navy is developing a next-generation warplane called the F/A-XX, which is further developing than the NGAD. 

The programs could be combined to save money and create manufacturing efficiencies. 

Updating the F-22 Raptors Will Be Hugely Expensive

This group of older F-22s is being used for training and is thus expendable. However, many in the Air Force and lawmakers on Capitol Hill believe that the Raptors should be modernized and kept in the fleet. 

They believe this is the most cost-effective method of placing more F-22s into active duty.

What About Using the Savings for New Bombers and Nuclear Missiles?

At least one defense analyst at a think tank even thinks that the retirement of the 32 Raptors could go to the B-21 program to build more stealth Raider bombers or to make additional nuclear missiles.

“It’s hard to believe this is one of the Air Force’s highest priorities. I think the B-21 and Sentinel are higher priority,” said Mark Cancian, who is senior adviser for the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

This is adding confusion to the mix. Trump’s Secretary of Defense nominee, Pete Hegseth, is not known for his defense policy chops and has not indicated his views on NGAD or any defense acquisition program. 

There is a nominee for the Pentagon’s procurement chief, Michael Duffey, but it isn’t clear where his inclinations lie for the future of the F-22 or NGAD. No one has been nominated for Secretary of the Air Force.

NGAD vs. F-22: Who Wins? 

A decision on the F-22 and NGAD may take several months. However, it stands to reason that any savings that come from retiring the 32 F-22s should remain in a fighter program like the NGAD. 

It is time to cut those old F-22s and send them to the Boneyard re-program the money, and allocate the funds saved to the NGAD project. The new airplane will be much better than the F-22 and will be a worthy successor to the F-35. 

The Pentagon has learned valuable lessons about the acquisition mistakes of those programs. The service branch is ready to take on the NGAD and develop it for the modern age. Yes, there are problems with the sixth-generation fighter, but it needs some clarity from the White House and Capitol Hill.

Defense Strategy Requires Difficult Choices 

If the Trump team wants to cancel the NGAD, then the Air Force should upgrade the F-22s. But when it comes to the future of NGAD, it is time to decide. China and Russia have no worries about their sixth-generation fighter programs. 

These countries do not have to deal with fickle lawmakers. Let’s give the NGAD program another chance to see if engineers can cut costs and design it in a way that makes sense. It’s time for a new sixth-generation fighter – not upgrading old ones.

About the Author

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.