Pokrovsk: Where Russia Could Win the War Against Ukraine?

We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE.

Three Key Points: The Russian Army is nearing Pokrovsk, a vital logistical hub for Ukraine’s eastern front, with its fall threatening to collapse Ukraine’s defenses in the region. Pokrovsk’s eight major roads and key rail station are critical for resupplying and reinforcing Ukrainian troops.

-Without it, cities like Chasiv Yar may become unsustainable, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to deeper Russian advances.

-Russia’s expanding military-industrial base, external support from allies like Iran and North Korea, and significant troop numbers contrast with Ukraine’s dwindling manpower and logistical challenges. Ukraine’s leaders must confront this reality to avoid outright battlefield defeat or face surrender terms.

Pokrovsk: The City That Could Decide Ukraine’s Fate in 2025

After over a half year of focused battle, the Russian Army is within two miles of the outskirts of the strategically significant crossroad of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. If this city falls in early 2025, the entire eastern front could collapse.

The risk is far higher than many in the West believe is possible.

Conventional thinking is that since it took Russia the better part of a full year to capture a series of towns and villages in eastern Ukraine – like Avdiivka, Vuledar, and Solidova – even if Pokrovsk falls, it will still take the Russian army another year to move a commensurate distance further. 

Some analysts seem to be banking on the hope that Russia’s offensive can’t maintain that steam for another year and, at some point, will get bogged down and forced into a tactical pause. For example, the Institute for the Study of War reported in mid-November that “Russia may not be able to sustain its current rate of armored vehicle and tank losses in the medium term.” Because of this alleged deficiency, “Russia cannot maintain its current tempo indefinitely.” 

Pushing Ahead or Falling Back

Yet much evidence suggests these views are not well grounded. Since that assessment, the city of Kurakhova has fallen, Toretsk is hanging by a thread, and Ukrainian defenders lose ground in Chasov Yar by the day. Aside from the huge casualties the Ukrainian side loses daily, some reports suggest upwards of 200,000 men have deserted the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Forbes reported that over 1,500 Ukrainian men from the 155th Brigade, trained in France and equipped with modern Leopard 2 tanks, ran away from the unit before it even arrived at the front.

Russia, meanwhile, continues to expand its defense industrial base to produce more weapons and ammunition to sustain its war effort. At the same time, North Korea and Iran continue to supply millions of rounds of artillery shells and thousands of drones. Putin’s army, according to Ukrainian commanders, now has just under 700,000 troops in Ukraine alone. They continue to add around 30,000 per month through various recruiting efforts. 

In short, all the fundamentals necessary for building national combat power are trending in a positive direction for Russia and a negative direction for Ukraine. This imbalance has been growing for months and will likely expand further in 2025. Such fundamentals are impervious to ‘spin,’ and no matter how much those in the West and Ukraine may wish it weren’t, these factors manifest on the battlefield. In all probability, the speed of Russian advances will accelerate further into 2025, when the war will begin.

Pokrovsk is key to how long, or even if, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can continue to offer stiff resistance.

Holding Out

“Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence,” Ukrainian military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov recently told the BBC. “If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble.” 

His dire warning is not without justification. Pokrovsk has eight major roads coming out of it, which are necessary to support the entire eastern front, especially the north and south routes. Further, it has a major rail station that is crucial for keeping the Pokrovsk front supplied.

Ukrainian analyst Pavlo Narozhny also told the BBC last August that if the Russians “cut our logistics (at Pokrovsk), then Chasiv Yar will be doomed.” It will only be, he continued, “a matter of time before we’ll have to pull out of it because we won’t be able to supply our fighters there.” Chasov Yar is already teetering on the brink, but it won’t just be that city that will fall if Pokrovsk is lost, but potentially the entirety of the central part of the eastern front.

Looking at a battle map of the Ukraine war, Pokrovsk is essentially the hub of the spokes that supplies much of the war material and transportation of reserves to the front over much of the eastern front. If Pokrovsk falls, getting supplies or men sent to the north and south of that front will be much more challenging, making it even harder for the Ukrainian troops to resist the relentless pressure the Russian army is applying.

Perhaps more importantly, that same map shows the majority of the Ukrainian defensive fortifications in the east, and it is evident that if the Russians break through at nearly any point in the east, there are very few defenses left. The main reason Russia has advanced so slowly is that Ukraine has been using defenses largely built after the 2014 civil war broke out. Beyond the current line of contact, only small defensive positions remain.

Without adequate reserves, without the ability to quickly move what troops they do have to counter any breakthroughs that may occur, it is possible that the Russians – who do have theater reserves in large numbers – could flood a breakthrough with fresh mechanized troops, who could then make stunning penetrations into the Ukrainian heartland. For more details on the dire situation for Ukraine, please see my recent show on Daniel Davis Deep Dive: Ukraine on the Verge of Military Defeat in the beginning of this article.

M777 Artillery Like in Ukraine. Image: Creative Commons.

Nothing in war is ever ordained, and things could change rapidly. But militarily speaking, Ukraine is in a dangerous position. If its leaders continue pretending they could fight on indefinitely, not acknowledging the deteriorating condition of its ability to keep fighting, the Ukraine side could lose the war on the battlefield. 

That is a sobering thought, but such possibilities should animate their leaders now while there is still time to reach a negotiated settlement. Wait too long, and Kyiv may be faced with the horrible possibility of receiving terms of surrender instead.

About the Author: Daniel L. Davis 

Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow at Defense Priorities, a four-time combat deployer, and host of the Daniel Davis Deep Dive show on YouTube.