We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE.

Published|Updated

Okay, maybe “lock” is a bit strong, but I wanted you to click the link, so I needed something catchy. Nonetheless, the New England Patriots (3-13) are my favorite bet in NFL Week 18 because they are hosting a Buffalo Bills (13-3) team that has already clinched the 2-seed and will rest its starters. 

As of Friday, New England is +2.5 at most sportsbooks and roughly +120 on the moneyline with a 36.5 total. The only reason the Patriots aren’t favorites here is that the annoying Boston sports fans in the media keep saying they should tank Sunday to secure the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. That’s wishcasting rather than legitimate football analysis. 

Sure, it would be better for the Patriots to have the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. But first-year New England coach Jerod Mayo told the media he is playing the starters in Week 18, and said: “I’ve never been a part of a team as a player or as a coach going into a game not wanting to win. That’s not going to change today.”

New England Patriots QB Drake Maye scrambling against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in NFL Week 16. (Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)

New England Patriots QB Drake Maye scrambling against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in NFL Week 16. (Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)

Bettors and the media were saying the 2022 Houston Texans should tank their Week 18 game to clinch the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. Well, former Houston coach Lovie Smith didn’t get the memo and the Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts. Houston ultimately traded up in the draft to take QB C.J. Stroud with the second pick and that’s worked out alright so far. 

Related: To Tank Or Not To Tank? That’s The Question For The New England Patriots

The lesson is that losses cost players and coaches jobs, and tanking isn’t a thing in the NFL. We (fans, media, and sports bettors) see the Patriots losing as a good thing because that means a better draft pick. Yet, New England’s locker room knows that having the first pick in the draft means you are the worst team in football. Imagine selling that idea to professionals. 

Buffalo, on the other hand, will rest its starters for most of the game. Bills head coach Sean McDermott did some coachspeak earlier this week. Josh Allen, 2024-25 NFL MVP favorite, will play at least one series to continue his streak of never missing a start before backup QB Mitch Trubisky replaces him. The downgrade from Allen to Trubisky is at least seven points. 

Furthermore, New England out-played Buffalo in a 24-21 loss in Week 16. The Patriots held a 14-point lead and converted nine more first downs (28-19). New England rookie QB Drake Maye threw for more yards (261-154) and touchdowns (2-1) than Allen and had a better QBR (69.6-27.7). 

Also, the Patriots were +4 home underdogs vs. the Los Angeles Rams at full strength in Week 11. The Rams beat the Bills 44-42 three weeks later. So, Los Angeles is clearly better than Buffalo’s backups. Ultimately, this boils down to my assumption that the Patriots will want to end their year on a good note and the fact that the Bills have nothing to play for. 

Prediction: New England 28, Buffalo 13 

  • For what it’s worth, the Patriots +2.5 is my favorite bet in NFL Week 18 and will make my final Circa Million VI card of the season. New England’s moneyline, or as a 6-point teaser leg, are bets worth making as well.

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.