College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Best Bets: Fiesta, Peach, Rose, Sugar Bowls

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The inaugural 12-team 2024-25 College Football Playoff (CFP) resumes New Year’s Eve with the quarterfinals. Contrary to the first round where the higher-seeded teams hosted their lower-seeded opponents, the quarterfinals are the bowl games we grew up loving at neutral venues: Fiesta, Peach, Rose, and Sugar Bowls. 

Let me be clear: I’m not a college football betting expert nor do I want to be. Regardless, I usually profit from these New Year’s Eve, Day, and CFP games because my lack of college football fandom allows me to be objective. Hopefully, that’s the case for this CFP to make up for all my losers during the regular season. 

College Football Playoff 2024-25 Quarterfinals Betting Card 

• Penn State Nittany Lions -11 (-110) vs. Boise State Broncos via FanDuel.
• Arizona State Sun Devils +12.5 (-108) vs. Texas Longhorns via DraftKings.
• Ohio State Buckeyes +130 moneyline vs. Oregon Ducks via Caesars Sportsbook.
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish -105 moneyline vs. Georgia Bulldogs via BetMGM.

Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (-11) vs. No. 3 Boise State Broncos 

Boise State All-American RB, and 2024 Heisman Finalist, Ashton Jeanty, had one of the greatest seasons for a running back in college football history. Jeanty led the nation with 2,497 rushing yards and scored 30 times (29 rushing touchdowns and one receiving). 

But, that was mostly against Mountain West teams. Penn State’s defense is a far tougher test. The Nittany Lions are fifth in points per play allowed and seventh in rushing yards allowed per game. They have the best defensive line yards per snap allowed among the 12 CFP teams. Penn State held Ohio State, Oregon, and SMU’s ground games in check. 

Also, Boise State’s defense is unimpressive considering it played the 91st-toughest schedule out of 134 FBS schools. The Broncos are 55th in yards per play allowed and 33rd in points per play allowed. The Nittany Lions can move the ball on the ground or in the air. While Boise State has a one-dimensional offense.  

The Broncos +11 will get public action because they only lost to the Oregon Ducks 37-34 on the road, and Oregon beat the Nittany Lions in the Big 10 title game. However, Penn State is -11.5 at Pinnacle Sportsbook, a “market-making oddsmaker” that books the biggest bets in the world. So, the Nittany Lions just feel like the sharp side. 

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Peach Bowl: No. 5 Texas Longhorns at No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils (+12.5)

Just like taking +11 with Boise State above, betting the Sun Devils +12.5 could be a sucker bet. Arizona State’s best win was over Iowa State (No. 22 in TeamRankings.com’s predictive ratings) in the Big XII championship and Texas’s only losses were to Georgia in its first season in the SEC.  

Nevertheless, I cannot help myself. As I wrote in my “Best Bets For The 2024 College Football Power Conference Championship Games” article, I love Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham’s story. Plus, Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt‘s passer rating is better than Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers, who isn’t UT’s best quarterback. 

Meanwhile, Texas is overrated, partially because this is a down year for the SEC. For example, as I write this, Alabama is losing to Michigan, which had several bowl game opt-outs, at halftime of the Reliaquest Bowl. The Longhorns’ best win in SEC play was Texas A&M (No. 17 at TeamRankings.com). 

They beat Clemson (No. 14 at TeamRankings.com) 38-24 in the first round of the CFP, barely covering as -13.5 favorites. But, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik carved up UT’s defense and Leavitt is better than Klubnik. ASU’s wins over Kansas State (No. 25) and BYU (No. 25) are comparable to Texas’s best wins.

Finally, roughly 80% of the bets are on the Longhorns as of New Year’s Eve afternoon, per Pregame.com. Yet, the line is suspiciously moving toward Arizona State (Texas opened as -13.5 favorites). That line movement is even more suspicious considering Texas is one of the most popular programs in the country. 

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Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (-130) vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks

Oregon upset Ohio State 32-31 at home as +3.5 underdogs in October. The Ducks have one of the best home-field edges in college football and are underdogs on a neutral field to a team they already beat. That should be a red flag. 

Furthermore, OSU “won the box score” vs. the Ducks earlier this season. Per CollegeFootballData.com, Ohio State had an 82% “postgame win expectancy”. The Buckeyes converted more first downs (22-18) but lost the turnover battle 2-0, including a fumble on their side of the field, which led to a 28-yard TD drive for Oregon.

Ultimately, OSU has the more talented team and Oregon’s edge in coaching cannot make up that gap. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in TeamRankings.com’s predictive ratings, and the Ducks are seventh. Ohio State has better EPA, success rate, and line-yard differentials vs. a slightly tougher schedule. 

Lastly, the market recognizes the Buckeyes are better too. According to Pregame.com, more money is on OSU and more bets are on Oregon. Typically, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public, called a “Pros vs. Joe’s” angle. 

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Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-105) at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs 

Georgia is living off its reputation as the best program in college football. However, the Bulldogs have their worst Simple Rating System score, which blends strength of schedule and margin of victory, since head coach Kirby Smart’s first year in Athens in 2016. They have the worst EPA and line-yard margin among the 12 CFP teams. 

Also, Georgia will be without QB Carson Beck, who sustained a season-ending injury against Texas in the SEC championship. I don’t even like Beck, but he led the SEC in TD passes (28) and his replacement, QB Gunner Stockton, is an obvious downgrade. 

The Bulldogs have a one-dimensional offense, which makes Beck’s injury costlier. Georgia has the 114th-highest rushing rate in college football and ranks 96th in rushing yards per game. Notre Dame’s defense allows just 3.7 yards per carry and should pack the box more without Beck on the field. 

Low-key, the Fighting Irish’s offense has been balling since losing to Northern Illinois in its second game of the season. Notre Dame leads the nation in points per play and ranks second in points per game. For what it’s worth, the Fighting Irish’s moneyline is my favorite bet in the CFP quarterfinals. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.