China’s Stealth Fighter Is Old News: Air Force Flew NGAD 6th Generation Fighter Years Ago

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Key Points: Even though China is making headlines with multiple new 6th-generation fighters, many are missing a key fact:  The U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter flew a prototype in 2020. However, the program faces a lot of challenges. 

-Once envisioned as an ultra-stealth, long-range sixth-generation aircraft, NGAD’s high $300 million per-unit cost and unresolved design issues have placed the program on pause.

-While Congress has been lukewarm in its support, the incoming Trump administration’s defense team, including Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth, will ultimately decide its fate.

-With China and Russia advancing their sixth-generation fighters, delaying or canceling NGAD could impact U.S. air superiority. A clearer roadmap and cost controls will be essential for NGAD’s survival.

Can NGAD Survive the Chopping Block Despite Already Flying?

While the U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter seems like a completely new concept, military analysts and defense media outlets often forget that an NGAD prototype flew four years ago. The NGAD program development started in the early 2010s under the Air Force’s Air Superiority 2030 project. The Air Force wanted something stealthier than the F-22 and F-35, with long-range, and artificial intelligence capabilities. The service branch knew that Russia and China were looking to advance their own sixth-generation concepts, and the Americans wanted to leap ahead of those adversaries.

“We’ve already built and flown a full-scale flight demonstrator in the real world, and we broke records in doing it,” then secretary of the U.S. Air Force, Will Roper, told Defense News in 2020. “We are ready to go and build the next-generation aircraft in a way that has never happened before.”

The NGAD’s Future Is Unknown

But flash-forward four years, and the future of the NGAD is murky. 

What stands out ominously is the price. Early estimates had the NGAD costing $300 million a unit and the design parameters were unclear. 

This fall, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall placed the NGAD program on operational pause until the program could bring the cost down, decide what exactly the airplane would look like, and determine whether other features could be reimagined. 

The program was supposed to be green-lit by January 1, but that isn’t going to happen. So, Kendall announced that NGAD’s future would be up to the incoming Trump administration.

What Will the Trump Defense Team Decide?

The new Secretary of Defense nominee, Pete Hegseth, has not articulated a vision for the future of the Air Force, much less on specific programs like the NGAD.

So, there are many question marks for the sixth-generation warbird. Hegseth, should he be confirmed, will rely on his new defense procurement chief, Michael Duffey, who should sail through the confirmation process. 

Duffey will thoroughly review all acquisition programs in the Department of Defense. That means the NGAD program will be on pause for months until the Pentagon figures out what the future holds for the sixth-generation fighter.

This is not a good development. The Chinese have flight-tested what appears to be a sixth-generation fighter this month. The Russians have their sixth-generation MiG-41 PAK DP, advancing with more research and development.

Now, the U.S. Air Force must come to terms with the time and money it has sunk into NGAD already. It’s endured four years of development since the prototype first flew. This may have oversight groups such as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency up in arms. The NGAD doesn’t have a defense contractor, has design issues, and doesn’t have a champion in the Pentagon once Kendall leaves office.

Congress Is Leaving It Up to the Air Force

Also, Congress has been non-committal about NGAD. An executive summary of the 2025 Defense Authorization Act doesn’t mention the NGAD. The NDAA itself defines NGAD as the “advanced capability fighter jet” and authorizes the Secretary of the Air Force to devise a “sustainment and recapitalization plan” for the advanced capability (NGAD) fighter jet. This is not exactly a ringing endorsement, and President-elect Donald Trump has not yet appointed a Secretary of the Air Force nominee.

There will be a new chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee – Senator Roger Wicker – and he is a proponent of higher defense spending so this means NGAD could get a lifeline, but this does not mean the next-generation bird is guaranteed to fly anytime soon.

Pros and Cons of the NGAD Fighter 

I have mixed feelings about the NGAD. 

On one hand, the ability of the NGAD to be ultra-stealthy with long-range is a valuable addition to the Air Force fleet. 

The Indo-Pacific is huge, the Chinese air force is determined, and Day One of any aerial combat operation would require mega-stealth capabilities. I also like its ability to tether with a Loyal Wingman drone, plus the artificial intelligence attributes. However, the cost after four years is prohibitive, and there are question marks about its design. 

It would be a shame to cancel the project, but it may be time to focus on the Navy’s sixth-generation project – the F/A-XX– further along than the NGAD. Perhaps both programs could be combined to reduce costs and increase efficiencies.

While an NGAD prototype may have flown four years ago, many questions remain unanswered about the program. Price is a problem. Congress is not entirely on board. There is no civilian executive champion. No defense contractor has been selected, and the NGAD’s final design is not guaranteed. 

We won’t know the decision about the NGAD going forward for several more months. The new Secretary of the Air Force must be chosen, and its acquisition head must be confirmed, not to mention the Secretary of Defense, who is expected to have a contentious confirmation process. NGAD needs significant concrete milestone achievements and government proponents to survive.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood 

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.