Playing For Pride In Week 17 Of Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping Contest

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Okay, I’m a dipsh*t. I’m a man of my word and I said if I didn’t go 4-1 or better in Week 16 of the Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping Contest, I’d admit to being a dipsh*t. Moving on, I feel like the Arizona Cardinals right now, in that my Circa Million VI is over with two weeks left in the regular season. Meaning, I have nothing left to play for. 

Week 16 Recap: 2-3 

1. San Francisco 49ers (Pick ‘Em) ❌
2. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) ✅
3. Los Angeles Rams (-3) ✅
4. Chicago Bears (+6.5) ❌
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) ❌

After last week’s 2-3, I’m not winning the “4th Quarter” contest, and I’ve been mathematically eliminated from the season-long contest for weeks. As of Week 16, I’m 40-40 and tied for 2,469th out of 5,632 entries. At this point, finishing above-.500 is a win and good enough for me to talk myself into entering the Circa Million VII next season. 

Circa Million VI NFL Week 17 Card

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

1. Los Angeles Chargers (-4) ✅
2. Minnesota Vikings (-1)
3. Atlanta Falcons (+4)
4. New York Jets (+11)
5. Denver Broncos (+3) ❌

Circa Million VI Pick #1: Chargers (-4) at New England Patriots 

Unlike last week’s debacle with the Niners, my best bet in Week 17 hit when the Chargers blasted the Patriots 40-7 Saturday. In head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first season, LAC punched its ticket to the AFC postseason. If you want to “check my math”, my analysis for Chargers-Patriots is in the X thread embedded below. But, as you can tell by the final score, it went exactly as I had predicted. 

(LISTEN to Chargers-Patriots analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #2: Green Bay Packers at Vikings (-1)

Anything below Vikings -3 is a bet for me on Minnesota. The betting market says the Packers are 1.2 points better than the Vikings on a neutral field, per Inpredictable.com, and I think the opposite is true. Minnesota has better overall and against-the-spread records. 

I’d call the head coaching match a toss-up. If you want to give Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur a slight nod over Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell, I’d accept that. LaFleur has been a head coach for twice as long (6-3 years) and has a higher winning percentage (68.4-67.3%). Otherwise, what’s the case for the Packers being better than the Vikings? 

If we re-drafted every NFL quarterback, Minnesota QB Sam Darnold would get taken after Green Bay QB Jordan Love. Which, for the record, I agree with. But, Darnold has a higher Pro Football Focus grade and a better EPA plus completion percentage over expectation than Love, according to RBSDM.com.

Furthermore, the Vikings have better pass protection, run blocking, pass rush, and run-stopping grades, per ESPN. Minnesota WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are better than Green Bay’s receiving committee. Minnesota’s defense allows fewer points per game and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the best defensive minds in football.

Ultimately, the only pro-Green Bay arguments are “Love over Darnold” and “Minnesota won’t win both regular-season meetings.” However, those arguments pale in comparison to my pro-Vikings case above.

(LISTEN to Packers-Vikings analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #3: Falcons (+4) at Washington Commanders

The Commanders have the lowest “strength of victory” rate (32.7%) among the 14 playoff teams if the regular season ends today. Their best win was last week, 36-33, at home vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. Atlanta also beat Philly, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice.

I’m giving the Falcons props for coming to their senses and replacing old a** QB Kirk Cousins for rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. last week despite eking past the Las Vegas Raiders 15-9 two weeks ago. Atlanta signed Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal, with $100 million guaranteed. 

NFL talking heads have been saying the Falcons should bench him for weeks now. Still, it’s gutsy to bench a guy you’re paying $45 million to during a playoff race after a win. But, Atlanta is right because Cousins is washed. Maybe Penix is bad too, but at least there is a chance he could be good quickly (See: Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels). 

There is a slim-to-none chance Cousins gives the Falcons the best chance to win. For the record, I liked Penix in college and coming into the 2024 NFL Draft. Atlanta signing Cousins and drafting Penix eighth overall never made any sense. Regardless, Penix himself, as a quarterback prospect, has upside.

The Falcons crushed the New York Giants, who have the worst roster in the league, 34-7 last week in Penix’s first NFL start. Penix didn’t exactly light the world on fire, completing 18-of-27 passes for 202 yards with no touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 73.4 QB Rating last week.

Anyway, because they beat the disgraceful Giants, no one is upgrading the Falcons after last week’s win. And rightfully so. However, the Commanders got a miraculous win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week to stay in the NFC East divisional title race. With that in mind, doesn’t “Commanders -4” feel trappy? 

D.C. opened as -5 favorites and, per Pregame.com, more than 75% of the bets are on the Commanders. Yet, the line is suspiciously moving toward Atlanta. Given that Penix didn’t show anything last week, the Commanders got their biggest win of the season, and the sketchy line movement, the Falcons are the “right side”.

(LISTEN to Falcons-Commanders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #4: Jets (+11) at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo was a -1 favorite in its 23-20 loss to New York on the road for their season’s first meeting in Week 6. Even though NYJ is the most embarrassing franchise in the NFL this season, a 10-point line swing is too big. The Jets won the box score vs. the Bills earlier in Week 6. NYJ had more yards per play (6.7-6.0), possessed the ball for a minute longer, and the game was tied entering the fourth quarter. 

This was before the Jets traded for WR Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers’ former teammate in Green Bay. While the Adams trade didn’t save NYJ’s season, or now-former GM Joe Douglas’s job, their offense has been better since acquiring him. Rodgers and Adams are starting to find their groove. Over the last four games, Adams is averaging 7.5 catches for 110.3 receiving yards and has five touchdowns.

NYJ is +0.2 in net yards per play this season, ahead of four probable playoff teams, such as the Kansas City Chiefs (-0.1), Los Angeles Chargers (-0.1), Los Angeles Rams (-0.3), and Pittsburgh Steelers (-0.3). Buffalo’s defense is 26th in EPA and 29th in success rate since the start of November. 

Hence, it’s tough to see the Bills winning by more than a touchdown despite having eight more wins than the Jets. Especially because bad luck has contributed greatly to NYJ’s disappointing year. The Jets have 6.1 “expected wins” compared to 4.0 “actual wins.” They have out-gained their opponents in four consecutive games but have only one win to show for it.

(LISTEN to Jets-Bills analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #5: Broncos (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals 

The definition of a “bad beat” is losing with an underdog in overtime. Well, Cincy beat Denver 30-24 with 1:07 remaining in overtime thanks to a walk-off touchdown throw from Bengals QB Joe Burrow to WR Tee Higgins. After the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati is my biggest villain this season. 

Sure, I got a lucky frontdoor cover with the Bengals -6 when they beat the Dallas Cowboys 27-20 in Week 14. However, I’m 0-3 in the Circa Million VI when betting against Cincy and all three were “bad beats.” Plus, I lost with the Bengals +2.5 in their 41-38 overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5. 

(LISTEN to Broncos-Bengals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.