Is China Destined to Become an Aircraft Carrier ‘Superpower’

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Key Points: In 2024, China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) achieved a milestone with three aircraft carriers, including its newest, the Fujian, undergoing sea trials.

-While China’s current fleet pales compared to the U.S. Navy’s 11 aircraft carriers, the PLAN is rapidly building new warships to extend its influence beyond the Pacific.

-To project global power and secure economic and political interests in regions like Africa, the Middle East, and South America, China will need more than three carriers.

-The U.S. Navy’s ability to maintain simultaneous global carrier operations underscores the challenge China faces in rivaling such a widespread forward-deployed naval presence.

China’s Aircraft Carrier Fleet: Can the PLAN Rival the U.S. Navy?

Earlier in 2024, the People’s Liberation Army – Navy (PLAN), for the first time, had three aircraft carriers on the ocean, as its 3rd and most recent carrier, the Fujian, underwent sea trials. 

The PLAN’s first two carriers, the Liaoning and the Shandong, have operated together multiple times to display dual-carrier operations capability. 

The arrival of the Fujian introduces the broader question of China’s overall carrier fleet and what the PLAN may need to emerge as a singular dominant global power in the coming years. 

Will the PLAN need to rival the U.S. Navy in carrier fleet size to become a dominant global force truly? 

What Does China Want In An Aircraft Carrier Fleet? 

The Chinese seek to expand beyond being a dominant Pacific power and project global influence as a leading world power in a position to rival the United States Navy with 11 carriers. 

There are two clear yet contradictory elements to this; in one sense, China is far from being able to maintain a global presence in any way comparable to the US. 

And yet, China is adding new shipyards and building carriers and warships at a staggering pace. 

It is unclear how many years the PLAN may take to operate a carrier fleet the size of the U.S. Navy. 

However, the PLA won’t need 10 carriers to operate as a regional power. 

However, it must increase its carrier fleet well beyond three if it plans to continue its fast-expanding global influence. 

China’s Naval Expansion 

In recent years, the PLA has dramatically increased its global reach into strategically vital areas such as Africa, the Middle East, and South America.

For example, China has built a forward-operating military base near the U.S. military’s facility in Djibouti, located in the Horn of Africa. 

Beijing’s one-belt-road initiative seeks to establish access and lines of influence from Western and Southern China into India and the Middle East.  

The Pentagon’s annual China report explained that the PLAN is conducting far-sea carrier training operations at further distances off its coast in key areas near the Philippines. 

Should China wish to support its growing military presence in certain places, such as the Middle East, or expand its allied relationships, it will need forward-deployed navy power projection. 

Global economic, political, and diplomatic power and influence will ultimately need to be reinforced with military presence to establish a lasting presence in support of China’s interests. 

U.S. Aircraft Carrier Presence 

The ultimate question is one of simultaneous global forward presence because the U.S. can currently project massive Carrier Strike Group air attack campaign power in several places at one time.  

U.S. Navy aircraft carriers have protected Israel from the Mediterranean and safeguarded international commercial shipping in the Red Sea while maintaining a significant Carrier Air Wing presence in the Pacific near Taiwan and the South China Sea. 

In this way, the U.S. can exert its diplomatic, political, and military influence in support of its interests in multiple key locations at one time. 

Should the PLAN wish to maintain its influence and presence in expanded areas such as the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and South America, it must reinforce its political and economic impact in new places with military power. 

Otherwise, US and allied deterrence efforts could slow or stop China’s continued expansion to maintain a strong and imposing presence in strategically vital areas. 

About the Author: Kris Osborn

Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.