NGAD 6th Generation Fighter Now Has a New Enemy (Not Russia or China)

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It Could Be the Incoming Trump Administration: The future of the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, a cutting-edge U.S. Air Force program, remains uncertain under the incoming Trump administration.

-Valued at $300 million per unit, NGAD faces scrutiny for its high cost and design questions.

-Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth lacks experience with acquisition programs, while Deputy Secretary nominee Stephen Feinberg is equally unversed.

-Acquisition leader Michael Duffey will likely review NGAD’s feasibility, focusing on costs.

-Strategic thinker Elbridge Colby may favor NGAD for its relevance against China, but Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) may challenge it. January confirmation hearings will shape NGAD’s survival.

Will Trump’s Team Cut the $300 Million NGAD Fighter Program?

The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter is constantly in the news because it represents the future of the U.S. Air Force. 

It raises many strategic decisions that must be made about the direction of the military and how it will fight in the future. 

The airplane will likely team with drones and have ultra-stealth capabilities and a powerful engine that can push it beyond any other fighter jet in the Air Force fleet.

 The current Air Force Secretary, Frank Kendall, is a fan, but he is leaving soon as President-elect Donald Trump brings his new national security team to the White House and the Department of Defense.

NGAD Is on Operational Pause

Kendall has paused the NGAD program because of its eye-watering price of $300 million per unit and questions about its design and which defense contractor to use. 

The operational halt to the program was only supposed to last until the end of the year, but then Kendall decided to kick the can down the road and let the Trump administration decide the NGAD’s fate.

Trump doesn’t get into the weeds of specific defense acquisition programs. He uses high-minded themes like “Peace Through Strength” which echoes the military strategy of the Ronald Reagan administration. 

To look for clues on the future of NGAD – whether it will be funded or canceled – we must examine the nominees for the Department of Defense.

Pete Hegseth Even Heard of the NGAD?

First is the pick to be the Secretary of Defense – Pete Hegseth. Hegseth is not known for having much experience leading large organizations or for any deep defense policy expertise.

 The former Fox News weekend host has mainly articulated how the new administration will reduce the level of “wokeness” and “DEI” in the military. He has articulated few viewpoints about acquisition strategy so far. We will likely learn about his views on the NGAD in his confirmation hearing in January. 

NGAD Will Be a Mystery to this Nominee

Trump has also tapped another outsider with no Pentagon experience to be Hegseth’s deputy – Stephen Feinberg. 

Feinberg is a private equity billionaire who used to run the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board. Feinberg’s job will be ensuring the Pentagon’s trains run on time.

 He has little expertise with defense systems and likely has never heard of the NGAD.

This Individual Will Have the Most Sway Over NGAD

The next nominee will have the most significant say over the NGAD. 

His name is Michael Duffey. This individual does have government experience and is prepared to be the lead acquisition honcho for the DOD. Duffey has been chief of staff at several departments in the Pentagon. He will have NGAD in his crosshairs. When he comes on board, Duffey is likely to order a detailed review of all weapons systems in the Department of Defense. This will likely take several months. 

The overall cost of defense programs will likely scare Duffey, and the new Secretary of the Air Force (who is un-named) will have to make a good case for continuing the NGAD program.

New Strategist Is Likely to Have an Opinion About the Nascent Fighter

Another Trump devotee who is the most interesting of the bunch is the new nominee for Under Secretary of Policy – Elbridge Colby. 

Colby served at the Pentagon during the last Trump administration and is known for devising the national security strategy for 2018. 

Colby emphasizes the need for the United States to focus on China as the primary national security threat and allow the Europeans to be more responsible for their security on the continent.

DOGE Is a Mystery

The next wildcard is Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk has already criticized the F-35, implying that it costs too much and should be replaced by drones. This office will likely seize on the NGAD’s price and may recommend leaving it on the chopping block.

So, the future of NGAD is murky. Much will depend on Senate hearings for these nominees. The biggest roadblock for the new airplane is Duffey. We will see if he is a cost-cutter or an acquisition chief with the foresight to understand how vital NGAD is to strategic concerns.

 Colby may support NGAD because it answers the threat of China’s new sixth-generation fighter – the White Emperor. Musk may see that $300 million number and advocate for a cancellation.

I don’t see Hegseth personally getting involved with the NGAD if he is to be confirmed. Hegseth is a former Army officer and has no experience with Air Force programs. He is likely to bend to the will of his acquisition leader. Trump doesn’t know details about NGAD at this point, but he won’t like the price, and if Musk is against it, the president is sure to get out the trimming shears. 

Thus, NGAD is not assured that it will live through the Trump administration. The President-elect wants a strong military without breaking the bank, and the NGAD is so far behind in design and price questions that it may not survive. 

Look to the January confirmation hearings for all these DOD nominees.

Senate Armed Services Committee members will surely bring up the NGAD, and these people must have answers.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood 

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.