If My Two NBA Bets Don’t Hit Monday, Christmas Is Canceled

With Christmas in a couple of days, I shouldn’t be gambling on the NBA. In fact, I probably shouldn’t have started betting the NBA until Jesus’s birthday since the true start of the NBA’s season isn’t until Dec. 25. That said, it’s the holidays, so I have a lot of stuff to gamble on for the rest of the year. With that in mind, I’m hoping to build a little surplus to bet the NFL and NBA Christmas with “house money”. 

NBA Betting Card: December 23

• Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 (-110) vs. San Antonio Spurs via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Detroit Pistons +5.5 (-105) at Los Angeles Lakers via DraftKings, risking 1.05u.

Spurs at 76ers (-5.5), 7 p.m. ET

Philadelphia was -13 and -13.5 favorites in its two home meetings with San Antonio last season. Granted, Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama is already an All-Star-caliber big and the Sixers have sucked so far this season. But, I still believe Philly will make the playoffs if All-Stars Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Joel Embiid stay healthy. 

When Maxey, George, and Embiid are on the floor together this season, the Sixers have a +13.0 net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Embiid isn’t on the injury report Monday. He played his best game of the season his last time out — a 108-98 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Friday — scoring 34 points and dishing nine assists. 

Philadelphia 76ers CJoel Embiid shoots a fadeaway over San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama at Wells Fargo Center. (Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

Embiid should be motivated to prove Wemby hasn’t passed him on the list of best bigs in the NBA. In his only game vs. the Spurs last season, Embiid scored a career-best 70 points. Ultimately, if Philadelphia’s Big 3 play and Embiid is in form, the 76ers should be closer to -8 favorites Monday. 

Prediction: Philadelphia 117, San Antonio 108 

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Pistons (+5.5) at Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET

This could be a look-ahead spot for the Lakers (16-12) who play the Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day. The Lakers are 1-5 in their last six games before Christmas with LeBron James on the roster. Whereas visiting Los Angeles to play the Lakers is probably one of the biggest games of Detroit’s (12-17) season. 

Furthermore, the Lakers aren’t as good as their record indicates. They have the biggest win differential at +3.6 in the NBA, per CTG. Meaning, LAL should have 3.6 fewer wins based on their net efficiency. Basketball-Reference.com does a “Simple Rating System” (SRS), calculated by strength of schedule and margin of victory. The Lakers and Pistons both have -2.7 SRS’s. 

Also, Detroit beat the brakes off Los Angeles 115-103 with both teams at full strength in their season’s first meeting Nov. 4. The Pistons out-performed the Lakers in three of the “four factors” and outscored them in three quarters. Detroit won by 12 points despite shooting just 23.5% from behind the arc. 

Finally, the line is suspiciously moving toward Detroit despite one-way betting action on Los Angeles. According to Pregame.com, nearly 75% of the bets are on the Lakers as of 1:30 p.m. ET but they have gone from -6.5 favorites on the opener down to -5.5 currently. That suggests the sharp money is on the Pistons in this game. 

Prediction: Los Angeles 113, Detroit 111 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.