Will Jordan Be the Next Syria? Understanding the Hashemite Kingdom’s Resilience

We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE.

Much like candy, revolution becomes more appealing when you see others having it. Since the Arab Spring swept through the Middle East in 2011, both internal and external forces have cast hungry eyes toward Jordan, wondering if the Hashemite Kingdom might follow Syria’s path to chaos. The fall of governments in Egypt and Tunisia, followed by the devastating civil war in Syria that led to the collapse of the Assad regime, has only whetted the appetite of some.

The question of Jordan’s stability is an important one. The kingdom sits at the crossroads of the region’s most volatile conflicts, sharing borders with Syria, Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Its role as a buffer state and key Western ally makes its stability crucial for regional security. Yet this same strategic position exposes it to destabilizing forces from all directions.

The foundation of stability: Religious legitimacy

Unlike Syria before its collapse, Jordan has developed sophisticated mechanisms for managing internal pressures. The Hashemite monarchy has perfected the art of subtle repression and selective reform, allowing enough steam to escape the pressure cooker without letting it explode. But as Syria’s experience shows, even seemingly stable regimes can unravel with devastating speed.

At the heart of this stability lies a crucial difference: the religious legitimacy of its ruling family. The Hashemites’ direct descent from Muhammad provides unquestionable religious legitimacy within Sunni Islam, which represents over 90% of Jordan’s population. This stands in stark contrast to Syria’s Assad family, whose Alawite faith was viewed by many Sunni Muslims as heretical, creating an insurmountable legitimacy gap that fueled the Syrian conflict. This religious legitimacy, however, is just one pillar of stability; equally important is the kingdom’s sophisticated security apparatus.

The security architecture

Jordan’s security services remain remarkably professional and unified, drawing heavily from East Bank tribal families who view the monarchy as the guarantor of their privileges. Western support and professional training further strengthen this loyalty. This unity stands in marked contrast to Syria’s military, which fractured along sectarian lines when protests erupted. […]

— Read More: allisrael.com