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In a recent Foreign Policy article, Steven Cook and I highlighted how Turkey may be overplaying its hand in Syria. With events evolving rapidly, it seems that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now aims to dominate Syria’s political future, sidelining both Moscow and Tehran.
To say Erdogan is “playing with fire” is an understatement. His maneuvers should deeply concern the incoming Trump administration, as Erdogan will likely pitch Turkey as the solution to Syria’s woes. However, allowing Turkey unchecked influence in a post-Assad Syria risks destabilizing the region further.
Turkey’s Backing of HTS
Ankara appears to be grooming Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as Syria’s new political order.
Turkey portrays HTS as capable of establishing a bureaucratic state that brings law and order while serving Syria’s diverse population. This likely explains Turkey’s offer of military assistance to HTS—an alarming gesture from a NATO member.
HTS, however, remains a jihadist organization rooted in Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It celebrated Hamas’ October 7 attacks on Israel, and its leadership still threatens to “conquer Jerusalem.”
HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani sends contradictory messages. He promises to protect minority rights and ensure Syrians’ safety while his justice chief insists on implementing Sharia law and barring women from judicial roles. Erdogan believes he can control Jawlani and mold HTS to his vision, but his ultimate goal remains clear: destroying the Kurdish autonomous zone in northern Syria. This zone, led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and protected by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has been falsely labeled by Erdogan as a threat to Turkey due to links with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). While PKK affiliations exist, the PYD and SDF have focused solely on combating ISIS and creating a safe space for Syrian Kurds—not threatening Turkey.
Erdogan’s Domestic Agenda
Erdogan’s obsession with dismantling the Kurdish zone serves a domestic purpose. By portraying a tough stance on terrorism, he distracts Turkish citizens from his administration’s economic failures. Reports suggest that Turkey already has 16,000–18,000 troops in Syria and is mobilizing along the border near Kobane, poised to eliminate SDF and PYD control. Erdogan likely envisions establishing a buffer zone populated with Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.
Ignoring Moscow and Tehran
Erdogan’s confidence stems from his belief that he has outmaneuvered Russia and Iran. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently revealed that Erdogan warned Moscow and Tehran against backing Assad, claiming their cause was lost. Assad’s subsequent flight to Russia underscores Erdogan’s growing leverage. Emboldened, Erdogan seems determined to decide Syria’s future without serious regard for the interests of Russia, Iran, or even the United States.
What Will Trump Do?
The critical question remains: how will President-elect Trump respond?
Trump’s recent remark about Erdogan’s “unfriendly takeover” could be interpreted in multiple ways. He might ignore Syria entirely as part of his “America First” disengagement policy, or he could use Syria as leverage against Russia and Iran to resolve the Ukraine war and curb Israel-Iran tensions. Either scenario leaves Erdogan free to pursue his ambitions, as Washington and other powers remain distracted.
Critical Considerations
Despite Erdogan’s momentum, there are fundamental issues that cannot be ignored:
HTS’ Jihadist Roots
HTS has deep ties to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Celebrating HTS as a national liberation force is dangerously naïve. How can an extremist group that openly threatens regional stability govern a pluralistic Syria?
Abandoning Syria’s Kurds
Should the U.S. and the West abandon their Kurdish allies in favor of Erdogan’s vision? Labeling the PYD and SDF as “terrorists,” as Erdogan does, is disingenuous. A straightforward agreement on security guarantees between Erdogan and the PYD leadership could address Turkey’s concerns.
Long-term Stability
Excluding the Kurds from Syria’s future ensures instability. A Turkish war on the SDF would not only destabilize the region but also create an opening for ISIS to regroup and launch a new campaign to establish its Caliphate.
Erdogan may believe he holds all the cards, but his aggressive strategy carries immense risks—not just for Syria but for the entire region. Ignoring these dangers could lead to long-term consequences that are impossible to reverse.
About the Author:
Sinan Ciddi is a Senior Fellow on Turkey at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in Washington DC and an Associate Professor of Security Studies at the Marine Corps University’s Command and Staff College. You can follow him on X @SinanCiddi