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Key Points: Russia’s war in Ukraine has inflicted staggering casualties and equipment losses, raising questions about President Vladimir Putin’s ability to maintain power. With up to 198,000 Russian soldiers reportedly killed, morale within Russia and its military is severely strained.

-Ukraine’s innovative tactics, using anti-armor weapons like Javelins and drones, have decimated Russia’s active-duty tank fleet, including 3,197 tanks and 6,160 armored vehicles as of mid-2024. Despite Putin’s control over public sentiment, mounting losses could spark dissent, even among military ranks.

-As Ukraine continues leveraging precision-guided munitions and asymmetric tactics, Russia’s capacity to sustain its war effort faces critical challenges.

Russia’s Tank Losses Mount: Can Putin Maintain Control?

Russia’s President Putin is known as a strong survivalist who can maintain a grip on power and control the flow of information throughout the country. However, many are likely now asking the question of just how long Putin’s regime can withstand the extraordinary amount of casualties the Russian Army is incurring in its ongoing war with Ukraine. 

As a dictator, Putin is not likely to be overly swayed by the possibility of changing public opinion. Yet, such dynamics are still quite significant as opposition to the Russian war effort could reach a “critical mass” and inspire widespread revolt involving some of Putin’s military members. How realistic is this? 

Russia’s Will to Fight

The strategy of the motherland may be pretty difficult to discern. Yet, the mounting casualties and nationwide recruitment of young men are undoubtedly taking a massive toll on morale both within the Russian military and, more broadly throughout the country. Would any opposition to Putin get real traction and access any real resources? Seems complicated to know definitively, yet the number of casualties must be inflicting unspeakable trauma throughout Russian society. 

Casualty numbers can be difficult to verify. However, in a significant BBC report, Ukrainian President Zelensky said as many as 198,000 Russians have been killed so far in the war. The BBC report also cites Zelensky saying for the first time that 43,000 Ukrainians have been killed since the beginning of the conflict. 

Massive Russian Casualties

Not only have thousands of Russian soldiers, including poorly trained conscripts and recruits simply ill-suited and not equipped for combat, been killed, but the Russian Army has essentially lost “all” of its active duty tank fleet, according to a significant publicly published US Army G2 TRADOC intelligence report analyzing key elements of the Ukraine War called the “Operational Environment 2024-2034 Large Scale Combat Operations.”

The report analyzed the Ukraine war with a mind to assessing the extent to which it is influencing current and future warfare tactics and Concepts of Operation. The text of the report cites overwhelming Russian tank losses generated by Ukrainian drones, precision-guided munitions, and anti-armor weapons. 

“In LSCO, the combatant that can field masses of low-cost precision munitions while protecting its sustainment networks will have an advantage on the battlefield,”  the G2 TRADOC report publishes. 

Russia’s T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Russian Tank Destruction 

One key, well-known variable is the widespread destruction of Russian tanks, including T-90s and older T-72s, by shoulder-mounted anti-armor weapons. The Ukrainian forces shocked the world with an ability to conduct hit-and-run ambushes and surprise anti-armor attacks on bridges and in narrowly configured passageways where Russian convoys were vulnerable.

Ukrainians used Javelins, NLAWs, Carl Gustavs, and other key anti-armor weapons to use urban structures and terrain to conduct dispersed or disaggregated attacks on incoming

Russian armor. Russian tanks were also quickly shown to be vulnerable to attack from elevated attack positions because Ukrainian troops discovered that the “top” of Russian tanks could be easily penetrated to great devastation by Ukrainian anti-armor attacks.  

Russian T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Russian T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

“Ukrainian Armed Forces have used vast quantities of man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), anti-tank guided missiles, and FPV UAS—combined with fires—to great effect. As of July 2024, Russia has lost 3,197 main battle tanks—more than its entire active-duty inventory at the outset of conflict—and 6,160 armored fighting vehicles,” the TRADOC G2 report says. 

About the Author: Kris Osborn 

Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.