Putin’s “unstoppable” Oreshnik missile: A dangerous gamble or empty threat?

• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the Oreshnik hypersonic missile as “unstoppable” and capable of delivering kinetic impacts comparable to nuclear strikes, challenging the West to counter it.
• The Oreshnik made its combat debut in November, striking a Ukrainian military plant with impressive speed and precision, but its effectiveness remains unproven without full-scale testing.
• The missile’s ability to carry MIRVs poses a threat to civilian infrastructure and could escalate the conflict, though Western defense systems like THAAD and Aegis are working on countering hypersonic threats.
• Putin’s claims may be exaggerated to sow fear and distract from Russia’s economic challenges, using the missile as a tool to bolster his image as a strong leader.
• The West must invest in advanced defense technologies and collaborate to counter Russia’s military advancements, as the Oreshnik represents a dangerous escalation but not an insurmountable threat.

In a bold and provocative move, Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again thrust the world into a tense technological arms race, this time with his recent claims about the Oreshnik hypersonic missile. During his annual end-of-year press conference, Putin challenged the West to a “technological duel,” suggesting that Western defense systems could attempt to intercept the Oreshnik missile as it targets Kyiv. This brash declaration, however, raises serious questions about the missile’s actual capabilities and the Kremlin’s motives behind such a high-stakes gamble.

Putin’s confidence in the Oreshnik appears unshakable, with the Russian president asserting that the missile is “unstoppable” and capable of delivering a kinetic impact “comparable in strength to a nuclear strike.” These claims, echoed by analysts like Sergey Poletaev, suggest that Moscow views the Oreshnik as a game-changer in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and a means to deter Western intervention. Yet, the reality may not align with the Kremlin’s grandiose rhetoric.

The Oreshnik missile made its combat debut in November, striking the Yuzhmash military plant in Dnipro, Ukraine. While the missile’s speed and precision were impressive – traveling 900 kilometers in just 15 minutes – its use was largely symbolic, lacking the full-scale combat testing necessary to validate Putin’s claims. Poletaev himself acknowledged that the strike was “more of a demonstration” and that definitive conclusions about the missile’s effectiveness would require further testing.

One of the most alarming aspects of the Oreshnik is its potential to escalate the conflict. With its ability to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), the missile poses a significant threat to civilian populations and critical infrastructure. Its speed and maneuverability make it difficult to intercept, but not impossible, as some Western defense systems are designed to counter fast-moving threats. The U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense, for example, have demonstrated their ability to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles, though their effectiveness against hypersonic targets remains a work in progress.

The mental game

Putin’s assertion that “there are no means of countering such weapons today” is likely an exaggeration, intended to sow fear and uncertainty in the West. Experts like Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, argue that systems like the SM-3 and Arrow 3 could potentially intercept the Oreshnik. Additionally, the U.S. is developing advanced technologies, including the Glide Phase Interceptor and directed energy weapons, specifically aimed at countering hypersonic threats.

The Kremlin’s reliance on the Oreshnik as a strategic tool also reflects deeper internal challenges. Russia’s economy is in turmoil, with the ruble plummeting and inflation soaring. The unveiling of cutting-edge military technology like the Oreshnik serves as a distraction from these economic woes, bolstering Putin’s image as a strong leader capable of defending Russia’s interests. However, this performance politics comes at a cost, as Moscow’s defense manufacturing base struggles to secure the raw materials and components needed to sustain its military ambitions.

The Oreshnik’s comparison to Western missile systems further underscores its limitations. While the missile’s range and speed surpass systems like the Storm Shadow and ATACMS supplied to Ukraine, its use is constrained by the realities of the battlefield. The shorter range of Western missiles has thus far limited their ability to strike deep into Russian territory, but this dynamic could shift as the conflict evolves.

Demanding respect

Ultimately, Putin’s claims about the Oreshnik’s invincibility are likely more about psychological warfare than technological supremacy. By framing the missile as a “technological duel” challenge, Putin seeks to project an image of Russian dominance while testing the West’s resolve. However, the lack of conclusive evidence and the ongoing development of countermeasures suggest that the Oreshnik may not be the unstoppable force the Kremlin portrays.

As tensions rise and the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, the world must remain vigilant. The Oreshnik missile represents a dangerous escalation, but it is not an insurmountable threat. The West must continue to invest in advanced defense technologies and work collaboratively to counter Russia’s military advancements. The stakes are high, and the consequences of inaction could be catastrophic. National security demands nothing less than a united and proactive response to Putin’s provocations.

Sources include:

RT.com

TheConversation.com

VOANews.com