Fading Two Of The NBA’s Two Biggest Franchises (Celtics, Lakers) Thursday

Apparently, load managing isn’t good enough since the whole Association was off Wednesday. This includes the rest days given to teams who didn’t play in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup semifinals Saturday and championship Tuesday. Hopefully, the additional rest equals good games Thursday because the NBA has an interesting slate for once. Regardless, I’m adding the three NBA bets below to my Thursday Night Football action in the NFL. 

NBA Picks for Thursday, December 19

• Chicago Bulls +14 (-108) at Boston Celtics via DraftKings, risking 1.08 units (u).
• Dallas Mavericks -4 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Clippers via FanDuel, risking 1.1u, if Kyrie Irving plays.*
• Sacramento Kings -4.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Lakers via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.

Bulls (+15) at Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET

Chicago (12-15) gets more wide-open 3-pointers and allows fewer wide-open 3-pointers than Boston (21-5) this month. The Bulls have a +3.3 margin per game on 3-pointers made and oddly shoot 37 percentage points better on the road (39.7-36.0%). Chicago has the best shot quality in December and ranks second in 3-point shot volume, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). 

Chicago Bulls SG Zach LaVine shoots a 3-pointer over Boston Celtics PG Payton Pritchard in a 2024 Emirates NBA Cup game at United Center. (Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images)

Boston beat Chicago 138-129 in a 2024 NBA Cup game November 29. However, the Celtics couldn’t cover as -12 favorites, they split the “four factors” and were tied entering the fourth quarter. Finally, the Bulls have only lost six games by 15+ points, the Celtics have nine wins by at least 15 points, and Boston has only covered three of the last 10 games. 

Prediction: Boston 125, Chicago 117

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Clippers at Mavericks (-4)*, 8:30 p.m. ET

Dallas (17-9) All-Star Luka Dončić will miss this game, but his absence has been addition by subtraction this season. The Mavs are 6-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in games Luka misses with wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, and Atlanta Hawks, all on the road, and the New York Knicks at home. 

I said this when Dončić missed games earlier this season, but Kyrie Irving can hold down the fort for a few weeks. When Luka is off the floor and Kyrie is on the floor, the Mavericks have a +2.1 net rating in non-garbage time, according to CTG. For instance, Irving’s points, rebounds, and assists all improved when Dončić was hurt. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson defends Dallas Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving at the American Airlines Center. (Jerome Miron-Imagn Images)

Unfortunately, Kyrie is questionable for this game with a shoulder injury. Granted, he’s had three days’ rest and was a full participant in practice Wednesday, so I think he plays Thursday. However, I’m not placing this bet until Irving’s official game status is announced. Instead, I’ll post via X an official bet on the Mavericks at -4, up to -5, if Kyrie is cleared. 

*Prediction: Dallas 117, LAC 109 

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Lakers at Kings (-4.5), 10 p.m. ET 

Los Angeles (14-12) won the season’s first meeting 131-127, otherwise, Sacramento (13-14) has dominated this series since 2022. The Kings are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games vs. the Lakers. Plus, Sactown big Domantas Sabonis balls out against LAL All-Star Anthony Davis. Sabonis has three straight triple-doubles and a 10-1 SU record vs. AD. 

Also, both teams’ records are misleading. The Lakers lead the NBA with a +3.1 win differential and the Kings are 29th with a -2.8 win differential, per CTG. Meaning, based on net efficiency, Los Angeles should have 3.1 fewer wins and Sacramento should have 2.8 more wins. I.e. the Lakers have been lucky and the Kings have been unlucky. 

Sacramento Kings big Domantas Sabonis and Los Angeles Lakers big Anthony Davis fight for a loose ball at Crypto.com Arena. (Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images)

Lastly, the Kings’ offense is clicking and the Lakers suck against good offensive teams. Sacramento is scoring 125.1 points per game this month and ranks sixth in offensive rating this season. The Lakers are 4-7 SU vs. top-10 offenses with the 23rd-best non-garbage time net rating (-10.8) and the worst spread differential (-10.4), per CTG. 

Prediction: Sacramento 121, LAL 110

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.