$2,000,000,000,000: Is The F-35 Fighter Worth It?

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Key Points: The F-35 Lightning II program, projected to exceed $2 trillion in lifetime costs, has sparked debates over its expense versus strategic value. Despite criticisms, the program has seen unprecedented expansion, with 18 nations—including Switzerland, Germany, and Poland—joining the F-35 community.

-Lockheed Martin has reduced per-unit costs to $87 million, but logistical and sustainment challenges grow with its global reach. Proponents argue the F-35’s advanced sensors, stealth, and adaptability ensure superiority through software and weapons upgrades.

-With plans to operate until 2070, the F-35 may replace the need for 6th-gen fighters, cementing its relevance in modern and future warfare.

Why the F-35 Program’s $2 Trillion Price Tag Sparks Heated Debate

The costs of the F-35 will continue to generate discussion, debate, and headlines for many years to come, particularly as more countries join the F-35 community and both Lockheed and the military services work to address maintenance and sustainment challenges. 

Clearly, the overall cost of the program generates much attention and criticism, as the program may ultimately wind up costing more than two trillion dollars over its entire life span, according to some estimates and a recent Government Accountability Report. For example, Italy, Brazil, Canada, and even Russia operate with a roughly $2 trillion GDP, according to Worldometers GDP by country.

F-35 at $2 Trillion 

Numerous public assessments and press reports indicate that the projected cost over the aircraft’s lifespan, including maintenance and sustainment, is anticipated to be at or above $2 trillion. Some are likely to wonder what this means and deliberate upon the variables that informed this development. 

In balance, there are some key things to consider, such as long-standing efforts by Lockheed and the Pentagon to lower the price tag per plane for the aircraft. Years ago, the Joint Program Office reported that collaborative efforts with Lockheed lowered the price per plane below $90 million per aircraft to roughly $87 million—the prices since this time appear to have increased. Block buys can also further reduce the cost, but the overall amounts are subject to fluctuation and change. Also, the aircraft’s existence has, in recent years, exploded beyond the scope of what may have ever been envisioned. 

What began as nine (and now eight) initial partner nations years ago has more than doubled. There are at least 18 F-35 partner nations, including original members and Foreign Military Sales customers.

In just the last several years, Switzerland, Germany, Poland, Finland, and the Czech Republic have joined the F-35 community of nations. Lockheed executives have told Warrior Maven that there will be as many as 600 F-35s throughout the European continent by 2030. 

F-35 Expands to 18 Countries 

With the number of F-35 countries exploding to as many as 18 member nations, a logistical challenge was created to a large degree because such a development massively increases costs and further complicates supply line, maintenance, and sustainment challenges.  

One such challenge relates to what Lockheed executives described as “interchangeability,” a term referring to a critical ability of F-35s from different member nations to provide sustainment and logistical support to one another across dispersed geographical areas.

“By 2030 there will be more than 600 F-35s in Europe, and interchangeability is the ability to work together from a logistics standpoint. For example, if a German aircraft lands in Denmark, it should be able to refuel and re-arm and go out the door,” McDonald explained. “This will take policy agreements but that is what we are working toward,” JR McDonald, Vice President, F-35 International Sales, Lockheed Martin, told Warrior in an interview on the production line last summer.  

A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II, assigned to the 495th Fighter Squadron from Royal Air Force Lakenheath, England, lands for the first time at Souda Air Base, Greece, July 7, 2022. The fifth-generation aircraft will be participating in exercise Poseidon’s Rage, in an effort to bolster U.S.-Hellenic readiness and interoperability. (U.S. Air Force Photo By Tech. Sgt. Rachel Maxwell)

Is the F-35 Worth it? 

Ultimately, the debate will rest upon the key central question of whether the aircraft is worth the cost. Detractors will, of course, say no and point out some things an F-35 cannot do or highlight various specs indicating how it performs relative to other 5th-gen aircraft. 

Proponents, of course, cite pilot testimonials, wargame and combat performance, computing and sensing, and the growing number of countries rapidly adding the F-35 to their fleets. This introduces yet another key variable of relevance: not only is the number of countries and overall aircraft being built massively increasing, but the Pentagon plans to fly the aircraft longer and in larger numbers than may have been anticipated. 

Disappearing 6th-Gen?

The potential disappearance of any 6th-gen aircraft suggests the prospect of more extended use for the F-35. Also, for years now, the Pentagon has been planning to fly the F-35 until 2070, believing that software, electronics, and weapons upgrades will ensure the aircraft remains highly relevant, if not superior, into future decades. 

F-35 JDF. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.

Many of the anticipated technological breakthroughs are expected in the realm of AI, sensing, computing, and weapons integration. While there will, of course, be new radar-absorbent materials and ways to enhance the stealth properties of the aircraft, the fuselage itself may not need to change drastically for the airframe to remain superior.

Years ago, the F-35 JPO pioneered an F-35 continuous improvement plan, which, among other things, mapped out a long-term strategy to use software upgrades, computing enhancements, electronics modernization, stealth improvements, and weapons additions to ensure the aircraft kept pace or stayed in front of potential rivals. 

About the Author: Kris Osborn 

Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.