Ukraine’s Defense Under Siege: Russia Targets Pokrovsk

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Key Points: Russian forces are steadily advancing toward Pokrovsk, a vital Ukrainian logistical hub, marking a critical moment in the ongoing conflict. Despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, recent Russian tactical gains, including the capture of Shevchenko, have placed them just 3 km from Pokrovsk’s southern outskirts.

-This advance jeopardizes Ukraine’s ability to sustain defensive operations in Donetsk and the broader Donbas region.

-Meanwhile, Ukraine counters with localized offensives to destabilize Russian operations. However, Russia’s heavy losses in manpower and equipment—1,600 casualties and significant vehicle losses in 24 hours—highlight the steep cost of their gains. The fight for Pokrovsk remains pivotal to the war’s trajectory.

The Road to Pokrovsk 

Recently, the Russian forces have been making tactical gains to the south of Pokrovsk, threatening the key logistical hub with both direct capture and a surround. 

A key logistical hub in the Ukrainian defensive line, Pokrovsk can support both offensive and defensive operations. The Russian forces have been trying to reach the urban center for several months now. And despite a fierce Ukrainian resistance, the Russian forces are edging close to Pokrovsk. 

“Russian forces are currently approximately 3km from the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk, having reportedly taken the village of Shevchenko,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in a recent estimate on the conflict. 

Shevchenko is located at an intersection of two different paths that lead toward Pokrovsk. As such, it can lead into the key logistical hub. 

“Russian will likely continue to make gains towards Pokrovsk whilst continuing to advance westwards to the south of the town,” the British Military Intelligence added. 

A potential capture of Pokrovsk by the Russian military would seriously frustrate the Ukrainian efforts to contain the invaders not only in the Donetsk Oblast but also in the wider Donbas region. The Ukrainian military is doing its best but has to account for shortages in manpower and munitions. 

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces are trying to destabilize the Russian offensive operations through small-scale counterattacks. 

“Russian forces have highly likely intersected Velyka Novsilka’s north-eastern logistics route, the T-05-18. In early December, Ukrainian forces reportedly regained control of the village of Novyi Komar, and continue to maintain one remaining supply route to Velyka Novsilka from the north,” the British Military Intelligence concluded. 

Of course, progress for the Kremlin doesn’t come cheap. The Russian forces continue to lose an extremely high number of men and materiel on a daily basis. 

Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Update 

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military, paramilitary forces, and pro-Russian separatist units lost approximately 1,600 men killed and wounded in the fighting, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.  And the manpower casualties are only one aspect of the Russian military losses. The Russian forces have been losing an equally large number of heavy weapon systems. Specifically, according to the Ukrainians, the Russian forces lost approximately 70 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, 34 unmanned aerial systems, 15 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 8 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems, and 4 main battle tanks. 

Overall, the Russian forces have lost more than 765,000 troops, per the latest Ukrainian estimates. These estimates are largely in line with assessments by Western intelligence services and militaries. 

Russia Sending T-54 Tanks to Ukraine. Social Media/Fair Use.

However, does it matter that the Russian forces are losing so many troops and heavy weapon systems daily?

Potentially not, especially since the Russian military seems to have steady resources to sacrifice to achieve tactical gains. 

About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou 

A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University, an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and is pursuing a J.D. at Boston College Law School. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.