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A lot has changed since the first Denver Broncos (9-5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) meeting this year in the Mile High City in October when LAC beat Denver 23-16. Broncos-Chargers Part II on Thursday Night Football kicks off NFL Week 16 with both teams in the thick of the AFC playoff race. If the postseason began today, Denver would be the sixth seed, and Los Angeles would be the seventh and final seed. 

The Chargers are battling injuries and have lost three of their last four games. But, LAC’s three losses were to the Baltimore Ravens 30-23 in Week 12 (the highest-power-rated team in the market), the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 19-17 in Week 14, and the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40-17 last week. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos are red-hot, having won four consecutive games with a five-game cover streak. However, Denver’s last three covers are bullsh*t. The Broncos crushed the Las Vegas Raiders 29-19 in Week 12, the Cleveland Browns 41-32 in Week 13, and the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 coming off their bye last week. On paper, those double-digit victories are impressive. 

Yet, if you saw those games, or dig into those box scores, you’ll notice how lucky Denver was to win those games, let alone cover the spread. Pro Football Focus (PFF) data scientist Timo Riske gives “noise-canceled scores” for every game, which are raw efficiencies for both teams, removing luck factors. 

Well, the Broncos covered as -5.5 favorites vs. the Raiders, but won the noise-canceled score 25-24. Denver covered as -6.5 favorites against Cleveland in one of the worst beats this year in the NFL. The Browns beat the Broncos 30-28 on the noise-canceled score. Last week, Denver covered -4.5, but Indy won the noise-canceled score by 14-11. 

The Broncos gained just 3.2 yards per play (YPP) last week against the Colts, the eighth-worst offensive performance of the season in the whole league. Teams that gained less than 4.0 YPP are 7-36 overall this season. Lucky-a** Denver has two of those wins, over Indianapolis last week and the New York Jets, 10-9, in Week 4. 

Simply put, the Broncos won’t beat Chargers QB Justin Herbert and head coach Jim Harbaugh Thursday if they put up another dud like last week. The Broncos benefit greatly from their opponents’ miscues, but the Chargers are +11 in turnover differential and second in turnovers (eight). 

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Furthermore, Los Angeles’s offensive line will protect Herbert from Denver’s defense forcing him into mistakes. Chargers LT Rashawn Slater is PFF’s second-highest-graded tackle among 80 qualifying tackles and rookie RT Joe Alt ranks 15th. Overall, LAC’s offensive line is 10th in pass-block win rate and 12th in run-blocking, per ESPN. 

Also, my favorite part of my pro-Chargers handicap is Denver has become a “public underdog.” Per Pregame.com, roughly 70% of the betting action is on the Broncos as of Wednesday afternoon. Between LAC’s recent slide and weak home-field advantage, the public thinks it’s getting a good price for Denver. 

Los Angeles Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins celebrates his touchdown with QB Justin Herbert vs. the Denver Broncos in NFL Week 6 at Empower Field at Mile High. (Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)

Los Angeles Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins celebrates his touchdown with QB Justin Herbert vs. the Denver Broncos in NFL Week 6 at Empower Field at Mile High. (Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)

That said, the Broncos having more fans at SoFi Stadium Thursday is “baked into the odds.” Meaning, the Chargers’ bad home crowd is known by the sportsbooks. Plus, Herbert and Harbaugh know they need a silent count at home. Hence, anyone using this analysis to bet on Denver is making a mistake. 

The other reasons people are backing the Broncos are Herbert’s high ankle sprain and Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins being on the IR. Nonetheless, Herbert had the same injury when he beat Denver in October and running backs are an easy position to replace. Again, this stuff is already “baked into the odds”, and everyone is betting on Denver. Let’s fade those squares. 

Prediction: Chargers 24, Broncos 17 

  • Heads up: I’m submitting my Circa Million VI picks for NFL Week 16 early with LAC -2.5 (up to -3) on my card. For the record, I’m 14-2 on Thursday Night Football in Circa Million contest picks since the beginning of last season.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.