$300,000,000 Problem: Is the Air Force’s NGAD Fighter Destined to End?

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Key Points: The U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, a 6th-generation fighter jet designed to replace the F-22 Raptor, is facing serious financial hurdles.

-With estimated per-unit costs of up to $300 million—3.75 times that of the F-35 Lightning II—concerns over budget blowouts are mounting. The program right now is paused. 

-USAF Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin floated a lower-cost “Light Fighter” alternative, suggesting growing doubts about NGAD’s feasibility.

-However, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall remains hopeful, emphasizing a re-evaluation of NGAD’s design for cost-effectiveness.

-Whether NGAD proceeds or pivots to a lighter concept remains uncertain as budgetary pressures intensify.

The NGAD Debate Won’t End 

Back in the summer of 2022, it looked as though the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) 6th Generation fighter jet program was already on its way to being “The Next Big Thing” in aerial combat technology.

That might seem a little odd to those who track aviation technology for the past several decades. NGAD seemed in the works even though 5th Generation stealth fighters – such as the American-made Lockheed Martin “Skunk Works” F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, the Chinese Chengdu J-20, and the Russian Sukhoi Su-57 “Felon” – were still fairly new on the scene and relatively untested in combat compared with 4th Generation fighters like the F-16 Fighting Falcon (AKA the “Viper”)  and F-15 Eagle.

However, fast-forward to the present day, and it appears there is much trouble in (proverbial) Paradise for the survival prospects of the NGAD program.

However, whether NGAD lives or dies, it is appropriate to profile this prospective plane project.

NGAD Initial History and Premise

Adding on to an earlier article from June 2022, a report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS):

“The Air Force intends for NGAD to replace the F-22 fighter jet beginning in 2030, possibly including a combination of crewed and uncrewed aircraft, with other systems and sensors … Since 2015, Congress has appropriated approximately $4.2 billion for NGAD … On September 15, 2020, then-U.S. Air Force acquisition executive Dr. Will Roper announced that the Air Force had flown a full-scale flight demonstrator as part of the NGAD program. Secretary of the Air Force [SECAF] Frank Kendall announced on June 1, 2022, that NGAD program technologies have matured enough to allow the program to move to the engineering, manufacture, and design phase of development.”

Rewinding further, NGAD traces its roots back to March 2014, when the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) completed a series of studies to explore concepts for air superiority systems of the 2030s for the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy. 

Drawing encouragement from the results and recommendations of those DARPA studies, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) launched the Aerospace Innovation Initiative (AII) in 2015 to develop X-plane prototypes to demonstrate technology for future fighter aircraft.

A Tenuous Present

Alas, a mere two-and-a-half years after that CRS report, the NGAD program has hit a major snag, a snag borne of dollars and sense.

After all the Congressional hubbub and media horror stories about the spiraling expenses of the F-35 program – to the tune of $2 trillion – the bean counters in the USAF brass are wary of a repeat pocketbook-pulverizing performance with NGAD; current estimates prognosticate that *each* individual NGAD airframe could cost up to $300 million … which amounts to 3.75 times the per-unit cost of the Lightning II.

One factor of note: at least the F-35 has proven her worth in combat, thus providing some degree of proverbial bang for all those big bucks.

The Way Forward?

To make matters worse for the prognosis of NGAD, no less than Chief of Staff of the Air Force (CSAF) Gen. David Allvin floated the idea of a “notional Light Fighter concept” as a lower-cost alternative to NGAD, doing so at the Chief of the Air Staff’s Global Air & Space Chiefs’ Conference in London this past July.

US Air Force image of possible NGAD Concept. Image Credit: US Air Force.

Having said that, SECAF Kendall isn’t quite ready to pronounce NGAD dead just yet, stating this past June, “We are looking at the NGAD platform design concept to see if it’s the right concept or not. We’re looking at whether we can do something that’s less expensive and do some trade-offs there.”

The program has been paused but not outright canceled. 

Pricey Pentagon programs die hard, so stay tuned, dear readers.

About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert

Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor for 19FortyFive. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published in The Daily Torch , The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security, and Simple Flying. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of the Naval Order of the United States (NOUS). If you’d like to pick his brain further, you can ofttimes find him at the Old Virginia Tobacco Lounge (OVTC) lounge in Manassas, Virginia, partaking of fine stogies and good quality human companionship.