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Key Points: Russia’s S-500 Triumfator-M air defense system exemplifies its attritional warfare doctrine, capable on paper of engaging hypersonic missiles, stealth aircraft like the F-22 and F-35, and even low-orbit satellites.
-With a range of up to 372 miles and cutting-edge radar systems, the S-500 outpaces its predecessors in speed and target acquisition.
-Limited deployments in Syria, Crimea, and Ukraine show mixed results; while effective in defending key infrastructure, it has struggled against advanced US-made ATACMS and Ukrainian drones.
-Despite technical hurdles, the S-500’s export potential to China and India, coupled with advancements like quantum radar integration, underscores its strategic importance in challenging US power projection and A2/AD operations.
Can Russia’s S-500 Keep Up with Hypersonic Threats and Stealth Fighters?
Contrary to what Western ‘experts’ will tell you, Russia is a military dynamo. Sure, the Russian Armed Forces are not as technologically dashing as the American systems are. But Russian systems are meant for one thing: surviving the brutal realities of the Russian way of war.
Whereas American and Western armies prefer to wage dazzling wars of finesse and technological wizardry that are short, sharp, and decisive, Russian doctrine tends to center on wars of attrition; a style of fighting that grinds down an enemy and denies them their ability to use high-tech wizardry against Russian forces. This doctrine is on display in Russia’s robust and highly popular air defense systems.
The S-300, S-400, and now, the S-500 “Triumfator-M” are all prime examples of these warfare styles and theories. Russia’s S-500 stands at the pinnacle of modern Russian military technology. It was developed as a next-generation air and missile defense system which aims to both bolster Russia’s defense capabilities but also redefine the parameters of air and missile defense technology globally.
Indeed, these systems are becoming a popular export product for Russia’s all-important defense sector.
The Development History
Back in the early 2000s, when Russia was trying to restore its previous greatness that was lost when the Soviet Union unexpectedly collapsed in 1991 (ending the Cold War in a decisive defeat for Russia), Russian military engineers devised a daring new take on their already popular S-300 and S-400 air defense systems.
Not acknowledged until 2009, the Russian defense firm, Almaz-Antey, was behind the development of this impressive new system. Almaz-Antey envisioned the system countering a broad array of threats—including hypersonic missiles, which Russia is the world leader in developing (farther ahead of both China as well as the United States military).
According to its specs, many experts believe the S-500 is capable of knocking down fifth-generation warplanes and even low-orbiting satellites, which have traditionally been out of reach for Russia’s older systems. The fact that the Russians are willing to deploy these systems beyond their territories—and even export them to American rivals, such as the People’s Republic of China—is a significant threat to the US military.
Indeed, it is a threat the Americans and their technologically advanced allies have yet to fully address in their own weapons designs.
Originally, the Russians intended the S-500 to enter what’s known as serial production in 2014, but there were complications. This should not surprise anyone who follows the acquisition processes of most advanced militaries—notably the US military. The more advanced a project is, the more likely there will be design complications, delays, and cost overruns.
That this program was a Russian endeavor, a nation that, since the fall of the Soviet Union, has struggled to afford its military ambitions (until very recently), should not be of any surprise to informed observers. Still, by 2021, the first pre-production units of the S-500 were deployed around Moscow, signaling a significant milestone in the development of this weapons system.
The Specs of the S-500
As noted above, the S-500 is designed to engage targets at very far distances (much farther than what the S-300 or S-400s can). The S-500 can hit targets as far away as 372 miles for air defense missions and 310 miles for ballistic missile defense mission sets. According to the design specifications, the S-500 can respond to incoming threats in up to three-to-four seconds, making this system significantly faster in terms of detecting and responding to threats than its predecessor, the highly respected S-400.
S-500s can track and engage up to ten targets simultaneously, at speeds of up 4 miles per second (that’s 14,400 miles per hour. Hence, why the S-500 is able to track and attack hypersonic weapons along with other threats). An essential element of the S-500s lethality is its 91N6A(M) radar system for acquisition and battle management as well as the 77T6 for anti-ballistic missile engagement. When stealth targets are engaged, the S-500 uses a phased array technology that allows for the system to reliably track and gain a firing solution on the incoming enemy stealth aircraft.
The S-500 uses missiles like the 77N6-N designed for hit-to-kill missions and the 77N6-N1 missile for conventional interception methods.
Russia deployed its S-500 system around Moscow first. Since then, the S-500 has seen limited deployments in both Syria and, later, Ukraine, the two primary warzones where the Russian Armed Forces are engaged in major combat operations.
A 2019 report in the Turkish publication, Anadolu Ajansi, indicates that the Russian military successfully tested the S-500 in Syria. According to the Turkish report, “Certain problems were identified during the testing, but they were quickly eliminated.” Russian military sources reported that the test was an overall success (because of course they would).
As an Export Model
More ominously, in 2021, Moscow was reportedly looking to export their new S-500 air defense system to both India, a potentially vital US military partner in the Indo-Pacific, as well as to China, the number one geostrategic foe for the United States. In 2018, Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer reported in China Aerospace Studies Group, a publication of Air University, a US defense publication, that China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC) intended to marry their still-developing quantum radar system with the Russian-built S-500 air defense system.
CETC “claims its system is now capable of tracking high altitude objects, likely by increasing the coherence time entangled photons” of the quantum radar meaning that “its quantum radar will be used in the stratosphere to track objects in ‘the upper atmosphere and beyond (including space).’” The important element here is that China’s quantum radar could possibly render stealth technology of the kind that US warplanes, such as the B-21 Raider or F-35 Lightning II employ, obsolete. And when married to the rapid-fire, long-range S-500, could be critical for China’s overall anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy for stunting US power air-and-naval power projection into contested regions of the Indo-Pacific.
No confirmation exists, however, that Russia did ultimately sell the S-500 to Beijing.
Is This System Effective?
What is known is that Russia deployed the S-500 in a limited fashion in the Crimean Peninsula, the Ukrainian territory along the Black Sea that the Russians annexed in 2014 (where Russia’s Navy has maintained a base since the time of Catherine the Great).
Russian sources proclaim the S-500 has been effective in its deployment, defending critical infrastructure, such as the Kerch Bridge, from incoming Ukrainian attacks. Although, skepticism is needed because the Kerch Strait Bridge has since been disabled by Ukrainian drone attacks.
Further, Ukrainian sources (again, take these with a grain-of-salt) argue that the S-500s are overhyped because the S-500 is not proficient in stopping incoming US-built MGM-140 ATACMS. So, between the successful Ukrainian drone attacks and ATACM hits on critical infrastructure that the S-500 was supposed to defend.
It’s an experimental system that the Russians are still working out. Yet, to underestimate this system is a foolish move. The S-500 is one of Russia’s most important and advanced weapons systems that could potentially seriously complicate the US military’s capabilities in terms of power projection.
About the Author:
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior Editor at 19FortyFive.com and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, The American Spectator, and the National Interest. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.