Is the Russian Military Going to Get Kicked Out of Syria?

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Key Points: Russia’s bases in Syria, including Khmeimim Air Base and the Tartus naval facility, are under threat following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to the HTS rebel group.

-While Assad fled to Moscow, Russian forces remaining in Syria are encircled, and Moscow faces the challenge of maintaining its strategic foothold.

-Despite efforts to negotiate with HTS and Turkey for safe passage, the situation highlights Russia’s diminished regional influence.

-Meanwhile, the U.S. may seek opportunities to engage with the new regime and potentially secure control of the strategic Tartus base, showcasing the shifting power dynamics in the Middle East.

Russia’s Syrian Bases Under Threat as Assad Regime Falls

Last week, the Russian Navy began previously undisclosed exercises in the Mediterranean – but it was likely just Moscow’s way of sending its ships to sea should its base at Tartus, Syria, come under threat. It was certainly a good move as the Syrian capital of Damascus has fallen to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group.

Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow after Russia was unable to help him retain power, as it did back in 2016. Even as Assad and his family are now safe, the unanswered question is what will happen to the remaining Russian forces that remained behind in Syria.

At least several thousand Russian soldiers are reported to have remained, with most believed to be at Khmeimim Air Base.

Can Russia Hold the Bases?

It would appear that Russia’s forces are essentially encircled, and the Kremlin may need to abandon the air base – but it is exploring other options.

On Monday afternoon, the Kremlin had reached out to HTS, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a news conference that Moscow is working to take the “necessary steps to establish contact in Syria with those capable of ensuring the security of military bases.”

As Russia had long supported Assad’s forces and has battled HTS for years, it is far from clear if the rebel forces will be open to a dialog with Moscow. HTS certainly knows of the two bases significance.

“The two bases hold an outsized importance to Russia: the Tartus facility gives Vladimir Putin access to a warm water port, while Moscow has used the Khmeimim airbase as a staging post to fly its military contractors in and out of Africa,” The Guardian reported.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Sunday that the Kremlin would need more aircraft than just the handful of Illyushin Il-75 and Antonov AN-124 transport aircraft that satellite imagery showed were at the base.

CNN Turk reported on Sunday that Russian troops have reached out to Turkey, to help evacuate their safe passage out of Syria – and that is an especially noteworthy turn of events as Ankara had been a supporter of anti-Assad rebel groups, including HTS.

Russia Looks Weak

Even if Russia can somehow maintain hold of its air and naval bases, its presence in the Middle East is likely to be seriously diminished. It was unable to keep its closest ally in the region in power.

“Russia has been exposed for what it really is – a power that overpromises but underdelivers. They came to Syria with grand ambitions, but apart from helping Assad survive through joint efforts with Iran and Hezbollah, they achieved little. The post-war reconstruction never began, and with Russia now focused on Ukraine, Syria became a secondary priority.

Now, Russia has abandoned Assad, revealing itself as an unreliable partner,” Ksenia Svetlova, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Fox News.

“In the Middle East, Russia now looks weak compared to the United States,” Svetlova added. “Syrians are stunned that Moscow left ‘Baby Assad,’ as the regime opponents call him, to collapse, while the U.S. has demonstrated strength by standing firmly with Israel in its time of need.”

Russian Air Force Tupolev Tu-160 (RF-94113) takes off from Kubinka.

While Moscow had supported Assad throughout the Syrian Civil War, which began with pro-democracy demonstrations as part of the wider region’s Arab Spring movement, Russia had played a more direct role since September 2015, putting boots on the ground and launching air strikes at the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al Qaeda-affiliated groups.

HTS had been one of the latter affiliates and was even declared a terrorist organization by the United States. However, it has claimed it has moderated its stance and disavowed terrorism while cutting its ties to Al Qaeda.

Moscow first established a presence in Tartus in 1971 but has significantly modernized the facility in the past decade. Tartus remains of great significance to the Kremlin – providing Russia with its only port in the Mediterranean.

As previously reported, if Russia does withdraw, the U.S. may seek a way to work with the new regime and take control of the facility.  

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Senior Editor focusing on defense issues for 19FortyFive. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,500 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on X: @PeterSuciu – and on Bluesky: @petersuciu.bsky.social.